<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"?><oembed><version><![CDATA[1.0]]></version><provider_name><![CDATA[In Moscow's Shadows]]></provider_name><provider_url><![CDATA[https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com]]></provider_url><author_name><![CDATA[Mark Galeotti]]></author_name><author_url><![CDATA[https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/author/markgaleotti/]]></author_url><title><![CDATA[The spy swap: a good deal for&nbsp;Moscow?]]></title><type><![CDATA[link]]></type><html><![CDATA[<p>Yesterday&#8217;s fascinating and faintly-bizarre spy swap on the runway at Vienna saw the Russians swap two real spies, one possible ex-spy and a slightly naive academic who fell foul of institutional paranoia for ten professional (if not especially effective*) deep-cover intelligence operatives. Furthermore, the quick exchange saves face for Russia, forestalling what otherwise would be a long and lurid trial, drip-feeding the public with lurid and sometimes surreal tales of dead-letter drops, buried money, subsidised housing and exasperated communications from Moscow Centre about their lack of productivity.</p>
<p>So it looks as if in return for getting caught in an aggressive long-term, deep-penetration espionage operation against the USA, Russia is getting off very lightly. It even gets to fulminate about US plots and provocations and &#8212; as one news report already has &#8212; vaunt a &#8220;10-4 win.&#8221;</p>
<p><!--more-->Is this US weakness, stupidity, or maturity? Probably a bit of each. Everyone spies on everyone else, and while I&#8217;m not convinced the West maintains the same scale of sleeper operations in Russia, in the big picture this genuine counter-intel triumph should not be allowed to derail President Obama&#8217;s &#8216;re-set.&#8217; Washington doesn&#8217;t need the moral satisfaction of trying to make Moscow squirm &#8212; and the Russians tend to react badly and defensively to being put on the spot. On the other hand, there must be a concern about the extent to which a pattern has been established, whereby the Russians do something the West regards as a breach of the norms and etiquette of international relations (invading Georgia, sheltering suspected murderers, etc), is roundly criticised, defiantly snaps back and after a month or two the West lets bygones be bygones in the name of that big picture. On the microscale, that makes sense: what good would be accomplished by a principled but seemingly self-defeating stand? But on the macroscale, when is enough enough? Honestly, I don&#8217;t think this case ought to be such a back-breaking straw. As I say, everyone spies, and while this is the biggest spy story since the end of the Cold War. But what about the next irritant? And the next after that?</p>
<p>* Though in all fairness, it is hard to say whether this was because of their qualities or because the missions they were given were in some ways nonsensical&#8230;</p>
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