<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"?><oembed><version><![CDATA[1.0]]></version><provider_name><![CDATA[Azimuth]]></provider_name><provider_url><![CDATA[https://johncarlosbaez.wordpress.com]]></provider_url><author_name><![CDATA[John Baez]]></author_name><author_url><![CDATA[https://johncarlosbaez.wordpress.com/author/johncarlosbaez/]]></author_url><title><![CDATA[Australian Carbon Tax]]></title><type><![CDATA[link]]></type><html><![CDATA[<p>Australians burn a lot of carbon.  Per person, they&#8217;re right up there with Americans:</p>
<div align="center"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions_per_capita"><img width="450" src="https://i1.wp.com/upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4b/CO2_per_capita_per_country.png" alt="" /></a>
</div>
<p>The map here is based on data from 2000.  In <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions_per_capita">2008</a>, Australians spewed out 18.9 tonnes of CO<sub>2</sub> per person in the process of burning fossil fuels and making cement.  Americans spewed 17.5 tonnes per person.  The world average was just 4.4.</p>
<p>Australians also mine a lot of coal.  It&#8217;s their biggest export!  On top of that, coal exports have <i>more than doubled</i> in recent years:</p>
<div align="center"><a href="http://www.australiancoal.com.au/the-australian-coal-industry_coal-exports.aspx"><img width="450" src="https://i0.wp.com/www.australiancoal.com.au/WYSIWYG_Assets/image/Top%20Exports%2008-09%20%282%29.jpg" /></a></div>
<p>Last Sunday, however, Prime Minister Julia Gillard announced a tax on carbon!   </p>
<p>In this scheme, the 500 biggest polluters in Australia will be taxed at AU $23 per tonne of carbon emissions starting in July 2012.   The price will increase 2.5% each year until 2015, and then a carbon trading scheme will be introduced.  The hope is that by 2020, Australian carbon emissions will drop 5% below 2000 levels.</p>
<p>Of course, the further we go into the future, the less sure we can be of anything.   What if Gillard&#8217;s party gets voted out of power?  There&#8217;s already considerable dissatisfaction with Gillard&#8217;s plan, in part because she had <a href="http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/election2010/7945914/pm-says-no-carbon-tax-under-her-govt">earlier said</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>
There will be no carbon tax under the Government I lead.
</p></blockquote>
<p>but mainly, of course, because taxes are unpopular and the coal lobby is very strong in Australia.  There&#8217;s been a lot of talk about how the carbon tax will hurt the economy.</p>
<p>These objections are to be expected, and thus not terribly interesting (even if they&#8217;re valid).  However, some more interesting objections are posed here:</p>
<p>&bull; Annabel Crab, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-07-13/crabb-australias-diabolical-carbon-pricing-scheme/2793426?section=business">Australia&#8217;s diabolical carbon pricing scheme</a>, <i>ABC News</i>, 13 July 2010.</p>
<p>First, it seems that Prime Minister Gillard favors continuing to sell lots of coal to other countries.  As she <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/blogs/the-bishops-gambit/coal-carbon-and-contradictions-20110713-1hcqe.html">recently said</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>
Tony Abbott was predicting Armageddon for the coal mining industry  But the future of coal mining in Australia is bright.
</p></blockquote>
<p>But coal mining can&#8217;t really have a &#8216;bright future&#8217; in a decarbonized world unless we <a href="http://www.azimuthproject.org/azimuth/show/Carbon+capture+and+storage+for+coal-fired+power+plants">capture and store the carbon dioxide emitted by coal-burning plants</a>.  </p>
<p>Second, in the planned carbon trading scheme beginning in 2015, Australian companies will be allowed to account for half of their emissions reductions by simply buying permits from overseas. I&#8217;m not sure this is bad: it could simply be <i>efficient</i>.  However, Annabel Crab points out that it has some seemingly paradoxical effects.  She quotes a Treasury document saying:</p>
<blockquote><p>
In a world where other countries pursue more ambitious abatement targets, the carbon price will be higher, and this increases the cost in terms of domestic production and income foregone.
</p></blockquote>
<p>Is this really bad?  I&#8217;m not sure.  I hope however that the Australian carbon tax goes forward to the point where we can see its effects instead of merely speculate about them.</p>
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