<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"?><oembed><version><![CDATA[1.0]]></version><provider_name><![CDATA[Azimuth]]></provider_name><provider_url><![CDATA[https://johncarlosbaez.wordpress.com]]></provider_url><author_name><![CDATA[John Baez]]></author_name><author_url><![CDATA[https://johncarlosbaez.wordpress.com/author/johncarlosbaez/]]></author_url><title><![CDATA[The North Pole Was, Briefly, a&nbsp;Lake]]></title><type><![CDATA[link]]></type><html><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.livescience.com/38347-north-pole-ice-melt-lake.html"><img width="450" src="https://i0.wp.com/math.ucr.edu/home/baez/ecological/north_pole_22_july_2013.jpg" /><br />
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<p>It happened over a month ago.  The picture above was taken on 22 July 2013.  It shows a buoy anchored near a remote webcam at the North Pole, surrounded by a lake of melted ice:</p>
<p>&bull; Becky Oskin, <a href="http://www.livescience.com/38347-north-pole-ice-melt-lake.html">North Pole now a lake</a>,  <i>LiveScience</i>, 23 July 2013.</p>
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Instead of snow and ice whirling on the wind, a foot-deep aquamarine lake now sloshes around a webcam stationed at the North Pole. The meltwater lake started forming July 13, following two weeks of warm weather in the high Arctic. In early July, temperatures were 2 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit (1 to 3 degrees Celsius) higher than average over much of the Arctic Ocean, according to the National Snow &amp; Ice Data Center.</p>
<p>Meltwater ponds sprout more easily on young, thin ice, which now accounts for more than half of the Arctic&#8217;s sea ice. The ponds link up across the smooth surface of the ice, creating a network that traps heat from the sun. Thick and wrinkly multi-year ice, which has survived more than one freeze-thaw season, is less likely sport a polka-dot network of ponds because of its rough, uneven surface.
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<p>This particular meltwater pond was &#8220;just over 2 feet deep and a few hundred feet wide&#8221;, according to this article:</p>
<p>&bull; Hannah Hickey, <a href="http://www.washington.edu/news/2013/07/30/santas-workshop-not-flooded-but-lots-of-melting-in-the-arctic/">Santa&#8217;s workshop not flooded&#8212;but lots of melting in the Arctic</a>, 30 July 2013.</p>
<p>The pond drained out through cracks in the ice late July 27. </p>
<p>More important is the overall trend in the the total sea ice volume as estimated by the <a href="http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/">Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System</a> (PIOMAS).  </p>
<p><a href="http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/08/piomas-august-2013.html"><img width="450" src="http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b0192ac5a03f1970d-800wi" /></a></p>
<p>The trend line from 1979 to 2011 shows that Arctic sea ice is melting at an average rate of roughly 3,000 cubic kilometers per decade.    </p>
<p>In 2010, 2011 and 2012, so much ice melted that the volume fell more than 2 standard deviations below from the trend line&#8212;that&#8217;s why the jagged curve falls below the shaded region at the far right of the graph.  At the end of July this year, it was just about 2 standard deviations below the trend line.  The ice volume seems unlikely to break last year&#8217;s record low.</p>
<p>As usual, click the picture for more details.</p>
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