<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"?><oembed><version><![CDATA[1.0]]></version><provider_name><![CDATA[Azimuth]]></provider_name><provider_url><![CDATA[https://johncarlosbaez.wordpress.com]]></provider_url><author_name><![CDATA[John Baez]]></author_name><author_url><![CDATA[https://johncarlosbaez.wordpress.com/author/johncarlosbaez/]]></author_url><title><![CDATA[Unreliable Biomedical Research]]></title><type><![CDATA[link]]></type><html><![CDATA[<p>An American drug company, Amgen, that tried to replicate 53 landmark studies in cancer was able to reproduce the original results <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v483/n7391/full/483531a.html">in only 6 cases</a>&mdash;even though they worked with the original researchers!   </p>
<p>That&#8217;s not all.   Scientists at the pharmaceutical company Bayer were able to reproduce the published results in <a href="http://blogs.nature.com/news/2011/09/reliability_of_new_drug_target.html">just a quarter of 67 studies!</a></p>
<p>How could things be so bad?   The picture here shows two reasons:</p>
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<img width="450" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-fSoTiWvkUnQ/UtRRM0F_VDI/AAAAAAAAocM/3lhH6LI8h6E/w506-h750/economist_magazine_problems_with_science.jpg" />
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<p>If most interesting hypotheses are false, a lot of positive results will be &#8216;false positives&#8217;.  Negative results may be more reliable.  But few people publish negative results, so we miss out on those!</p>
<p>And then there&#8217;s wishful thinking, sloppiness and downright fraud.  Read this <i>Economist</i> article for more on the problems&#8212;and how to fix them:</p>
<p>&bull; <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21588057-scientists-think-science-self-correcting-alarming-degree-it-not-trouble﻿">Trouble at the lab</a>, <i>Economist</i>, 18 October 2013.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s where I got the picture above.</p>
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