<![CDATA[Victory Within Reach]]>mocked the LAT headline on a poll showing a clear majority opposed to marriage equality in California. But Mickey may be wrong yet again. The LAT poll showed a 54 - 35 point loss for marriage rights for gay couples. It depressed me at first blush, but a little Googling revealed that most initiatives in California need a strong 55 percent minimum at this stage to survive in the fall. There's always a drop-off apparently. So the initiative may be closer than the poll suggested. Maybe a lot closer. The first reason for optimism is a new Field poll, a little larger than the LAT poll, that shows an actual majority in favor of marriage equality: 51 - 42. The poll was taken after the court decision. This is the first ever majority for same-sex marriage in a California poll, and it's a solid one.  What's driving the dramatic shift upward toward support for inclusion? You guessed it:

Californians age 18-29 favor the idea of allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry by a greater than two to one margin (68% to 25%). Those in the 30-39 age group also approve of such marriages by  24 percentage points. However voters age 65 or older disapprove by a wide margin (55% to 36%). 

The next generation doesn't simply approve of gay marriage; it does so by a massive majority. The poll suggests an Obama-Clinton-style generation gap - and an Obama candidacy this fall will surely increase the number of these demographics in the California voting this fall. ]]>