[O]ptimism could be dangerous if it leads the country to underestimate its continued vulnerabilities—to new financial shocks, to new shocks to household budgets (as from rising resource costs), to new deterioration in housing markets, to continued drag from an unemployment problem that remains very serious. At this point in any recovery, complacency is the enemy. All observers want this to be 1983, but it very well might turn out to be 1937.

Reihan goes through the Gross column point by point.