Barack Obama should win a second term unless:

• He dies in office. Let’s hope he doesn’t.

• The economy remains a disaster. Let’s hope it doesn’t, for our sake.   He’s got about 18 months for it to turn around, though, in time for it to sink in.

• There’s a significant third party challenger that hurts him more than his opponent. That seems quite unlikely. (Just for kicks, I’ll nominate Al Gore.)  Indeed, the opposite seems more likely.

• He decides not to seek re-election. Incredibly unlikely, absent a double dip so steep that he’s in danger of not being re-nominated.

• He’s presiding over a highly unpopular war. Possible.  But he does seem to be looking for the door in Afghanistan.