[A]s this piece from the Washington Post’s Ezra Klein points out, the unemployment rate no longer fits facts.  Unemployment is dropping because people are dropping out of the labor market.  Using historical figures, the unemployment rate is 11 percent; if more people get back into the workforce as the recovery continues, the headline unemployment rate could actually rise — during the election year.  People feel worse than the numbers show, and they are likely to continue doing so for some time.  This is why the President’s poll numbers aren’t going up, and this is why next November is still very much up in the air.