<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"?><oembed><version><![CDATA[1.0]]></version><provider_name><![CDATA[The Dish]]></provider_name><provider_url><![CDATA[http://dish.andrewsullivan.com]]></provider_url><author_name><![CDATA[Andrew Sullivan]]></author_name><author_url><![CDATA[https://dish.andrewsullivan.com/author/sullydish/]]></author_url><title><![CDATA[Ferguson&#8217;s Yellow Peril]]></title><type><![CDATA[link]]></type><html><![CDATA[<img alt="YellowTerror" class="asset  asset-image at-xid-6a00d83451c45669e2017c316f1d29970b" src="http://andrewsullivan.readymadeweb.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/6a00d83451c45669e2017c316f1d29970b-550wi.jpg" style="width: 515px;" title="YellowTerror" /></p> <p>Fallows <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/08/as-a-harvard-alum-i-apologize/261308/" target="_self">makes</a>  an important point:</p> <blockquote> <p>A  little earlier I had a testy on-stage exchange with [Niall Ferguson] about the  United States and China. He said that U.S. budget deficits would lead to  the certain collapse of the U.S.-China relationship, since China would  cut off further credit to the spendthrift Yanks. I said that might sound  like a neat theory but reflected no awareness of actual Chinese  incentives and behavior, and that the showdown he considered  &quot;inevitable&quot; in fact would not occur. As it has not.</p> </blockquote> <p>Niall <a href="http://www.niallferguson.com/site/FERG/Templates/GeneralArticle.aspx?pageid=450&amp;cc=GB" target="_self">has</a> <a href="http://www.niallferguson.com/site/FERG/Templates/GeneralArticle.aspx?pageid=255&amp;cc=GB" target="_self">made</a> <a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2009/08/14/chimerica-is-headed-for-divorce.html" target="_self">considerable</a> <a href="http://www.niallferguson.com/site/FERG/Templates/GeneralArticle.aspx?pageid=275&amp;cc=GB" target="_self">contributions</a> to the argument that holding US bonds is a strategic device advancing China&#39;s rise. Back in 2011, Fareed Zakaria <a href="http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/14/why-china-needs-u-s/" target="_self">broke down</a> why this is off-base:</p> <blockquote> <p>Here in the U.S. you hear many people worry that the Chinese government might stop buying American T-Bills. I think these fears are vastly overblown. The economic situation between China and the U.S. is the financial version of mutually assured destruction - that cold war doctrine of nuclear deterrence.... China is addicted to a strategy of export-led growth, which requires that it keep its goods cheap. This means keeping its currency undervalued. That&#39;s why it buys dollars.</p> </blockquote> <p>In a 2010 post, economist Michael Pettis <a href="http://www.mpettis.com/2010/02/22/what-the-pboc-cannot-do-with-its-reserves/" target="_self">framed</a> the issue in a little more detail:</p>]]></html><thumbnail_url><![CDATA[https://sullydish.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/6a00d83451c45669e2017c316f1d29970b-550wi.jpg?fit=440%2C330]]></thumbnail_url><thumbnail_width><![CDATA[296]]></thumbnail_width><thumbnail_height><![CDATA[330]]></thumbnail_height></oembed>