I suspect that when the Democratic enthusiasm bump from the DNC finally settles, we are going to see the two parties sort themselves roughly in line with what they have done through history – meaning a slight edge for the Republicans, not the Democrats. That is also going to shrink Obama’s margin.

Jamelle Bouie responds:

This sounds persuasive, until you realize that it’s been nearly three weeks since the Democratic National Convention ended, and there’s no sign of diminished enthusiasm among Democrats. Indeed, despite wide speculation that Obama will have to worry about lower enthusiasm and turnout among core groups — like African Americans and Latinos — the available polling suggests that this is an overblown concern.

Elsewhere, Bouie and Bob Moser compare Republicans in 2012 to Democrats in 2004: