Beyond a certain point, however, brutality undermines the bargaining process. Attacks on civilians can effectively shift bargaining power away from the government and toward insurgents. Initially, positive shifts in rebel bargaining power increase the likelihood that the group achieves policy concessions from the state. However, beyond a certain point, these shifts may embolden the rebels, encouraging them to reject government concessions as their belief in their own future victory increases. Our results thus imply a curvilinear relationship between civilian targeting and the probability of a negotiated settlement wherein violence initially increases and then diminishes the odds of successful settlement.
The inflection point appears to be at the rate of approximately 400 deaths per month. Below that point, civilian victimization increases the likelihood that the conflict ends in formal government concessions to the rebel group. Beyond that point, however, the likelihood of significant concessions declines.
(Photo: A woman reacts after shelling in the town of Yasynuvata near the rebel stronghold of Donetsk on August 12, 2014. By Dimitar Dilkoff/AFP/Getty Images)
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