<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"?><oembed><version><![CDATA[1.0]]></version><provider_name><![CDATA[Get The Picture]]></provider_name><provider_url><![CDATA[https://blutarsky.wordpress.com]]></provider_url><author_name><![CDATA[Senator Blutarsky]]></author_name><author_url><![CDATA[https://blutarsky.wordpress.com/author/blutarsky/]]></author_url><title><![CDATA[The human element and gaming the&nbsp;system]]></title><type><![CDATA[link]]></type><html><![CDATA[<p>Something the MAC commissioner said in <a href="http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/12387579/college-football-playoff-not-expecting-changes-year-2?src=mobile&amp;rand=ref~{%22ref%22%3A%22http%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2FUN2IXQdDad%22}" target="_blank">the Heather Dinich piece</a> I linked to yesterday&#8230;</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;In the case of the BCS, they started it from scratch, so they were building metrics as they went. To think that there wouldn&#8217;t be a time period of calibration, that&#8217;s just logical to think that&#8217;s going to occur. One of the big complaints about the BCS was the lack of the human element. Now we have a big dose of the human element. Some people like it, some people don&#8217;t. You don&#8217;t overreact. You let it play out a little bit to really get a sense of it.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p>&#8230; is kind of amusing in light of last year&#8217;s big struggle over <a href="http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/12414522/why-nonconference-scheduling-matters-power-5-college-football-teams" target="_blank">what to do with the Big 12&#8217;s two best teams</a>.</p>
<blockquote><p>If a team from the Big Ten, SEC, ACC, Pac-12, Big 12 &#8212; or Notre Dame &#8212; finishes the regular season undefeated and wins its conference championship, it&#8217;s a lock for one of the four spots in the College Football Playoff, right?</p>
<p>&#8220;I don&#8217;t think it&#8217;s automatic or should be automatic,&#8221; ACC commissioner John Swofford said, &#8220;but I think it would take some unusual circumstances for an undefeated Power 5 team not to be one of the top four.&#8221;</p>
<p>Makes sense.</p>
<p>But then why schedule aggressively? Why put an Oklahoma or a Clemson on the nonconference schedule if the only goal is to win every game? Because winning isn&#8217;t enough in the sport&#8217;s new postseason.</p>
<p>Teams must now answer the question, &#8220;But who did they beat?&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p>Well, that&#8217;s the story this week, anyway.  The problem with the human element is that it isn&#8217;t necessarily consistent.  Nor is it necessarily transparent, Jeff Long&#8217;s insistence to the contrary notwithstanding.</p>
<blockquote><p>There are 12 people tasked with comparing teams with similar résumés, and one of the criteria that &#8220;must be considered&#8221; is strength of schedule. There&#8217;s no doubt the selection committee honored that mandate in its inaugural season. It&#8217;s <em>the </em>reason Marshall was locked out of the committee&#8217;s poll for weeks. It was a factor in all seven of the weekly rankings, as committee chairman Jeff Long consistently noted wins over the committee&#8217;s top 25 teams as justification for where teams were slotted. It was one big reason TCU was ranked ahead of Baylor all season. TCU had a win over Minnesota. Baylor had a win over Buffalo.</p></blockquote>
<p>Bill Hancock explains.</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;Clearly, teams that have faced tougher opposition are generally going to come out ahead,&#8221; said Bill Hancock, executive director of the College Football Playoff. &#8220;There&#8217;s just no question that the committee compares those nonconference schedules. I know that the playoff will usher in a whole new era of scheduling and that teams who want to be in this playoff are going to have to prove themselves with their schedules.&#8221;</p>
<p>That&#8217;s exactly what Ohio State did.</p></blockquote>
<p>Well, that was certainly convenient for the Big Ten.  But what happens to Ohio State when it&#8217;s in the mix next time and doesn&#8217;t have an advantage in strength of schedule?  If there&#8217;s one thing Urban Meyer has demonstrated in winning three national titles, he knows how to work the selection system to his advantage.  I&#8217;ll believe Hancock when his argument is used to keep a Ohio State or Alabama out of the semifinals.</p>
<p>Which is not to say that Baylor, between its insistence on playing a weak ass nonconference schedule and not getting a conference championship game bounce going into selection time &#8211; and don&#8217;t think Ohio State&#8217;s crushing of Wisconsin wasn&#8217;t a big, big factor there at the end &#8211; doesn&#8217;t face an uphill struggle.  But let&#8217;s not kid ourselves about how the human element can be influenced at a timely point.  Computers may have their flaws, but at least you know they&#8217;re using the same criteria at the end they were using at the start.</p>
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