<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"?><oembed><version><![CDATA[1.0]]></version><provider_name><![CDATA[Glenn Chan&#039;s Random Notes on Investing]]></provider_name><provider_url><![CDATA[https://glennchan.wordpress.com]]></provider_url><author_name><![CDATA[GlennC]]></author_name><author_url><![CDATA[https://glennchan.wordpress.com/author/glennchan/]]></author_url><title><![CDATA[NI 43-101 techical report red&nbsp;flags]]></title><type><![CDATA[link]]></type><html><![CDATA[<p>When I read NI 43-101 reports, here are some of the red flags I look for.  If I see these, it means that the rest of the technical report probably uses overly aggressive assumptions.</p>
<ol>
<li><strong>Future commodity prices</strong>.  It is reasonable to use the 3-yr historical average.  Now if you are bullish on a commodity then obviously you are going to use your prediction of future prices in trying to value a mining asset.  However, it is a bad sign if the report&#8217;s author is using some number that is higher than the 3-yr historical average.  The author is trying to stretch the numbers to make the mining asset look more attractive.  If the author is using commodity prices provided by the mining company&#8217;s management&#8230; run away.  And if the commodity price is supposed to go up due to inflation&#8230; run away.</li>
<li><strong>Exchange rates</strong>.  If it&#8217;s not the exchange rate at the time the report was written&#8230; run away.  This is a bogus method for inflating commodity prices or deflating costs.</li>
<li><strong>NPV at a discount rate of 5% or lower</strong>.  A discount rate like that is stretching.  If the resource is clearly economic, the author would probably start with a base case of 7.5-10%.</li>
<li><strong>Geological interpretation</strong>.  The size of a deposit could be exaggerated by using an extremely large search size.  Deposit size can also be inflated by interpolating between drill intersections that are incredibly far apart.</li>
<li><strong>Untested metallurgical process</strong>.  What works on a bench-scale may not necessarily work in a full-scale production environment.  Granted, this isn&#8217;t necessarily a red flag as it can make sense to try newer and better recovery techniques.  However, there are technological risks involved that may lead to cost overruns.</li>
<li><strong>Were previous technical reports bogus</strong>?  Go on SEDAR.ca and look at the technical reports for previous deposits.  In the case of Canada Lithium, they released a bogus report for one of their gold properties claiming several hundred thousand ounces of (Inferred) resources.  Then they raised capital.  Then this property was written down to almost 0 in the same quarter.</li>
</ol>
<p>Unfortunately, there are also subtle ways to manipulate reserves and NPV that are very difficult to spot.</p>
<ol>
<li><strong>Aggressive engineering assumptions</strong>.  A devious author could feign ignorance to engineering complications and leave costs out.  For example, KWG thought that a railroad to its deposit would cost $900M.  Now it is saying that it would cost almost $2B.</li>
<li><strong>Grade interpolation method</strong>.  This can make a difference of 20% depending on whether nearest neighbour, ID², ID³, etc. are used.  It is a good sign if the report shows the results for many interpolation methods.</li>
<li><strong>Mine engineering inherently involves a number of moving parts</strong>.  Subtle adjustments to the various factors can have a huge impact on mine economics.  For example, a 5% adjustment to deposit size, mining recovery and metal recovery can lead to a ~15.7% increase in revenue.  A 5% change to operating+capital costs for a mine with a 80% margin would lead to a 20% increase in profit.  It is actually slightly higher than that if lower-grade ore becomes economic due to the lower operating costs.  The bottom line is that a series of very small changes can have a cumulative effect on mine economics.</li>
</ol>
]]></html></oembed>