<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"?><oembed><version><![CDATA[1.0]]></version><provider_name><![CDATA[Glenn Chan&#039;s Random Notes on Investing]]></provider_name><provider_url><![CDATA[https://glennchan.wordpress.com]]></provider_url><author_name><![CDATA[GlennC]]></author_name><author_url><![CDATA[https://glennchan.wordpress.com/author/glennchan/]]></author_url><title><![CDATA[NovaGold (NG): A quick&nbsp;comment]]></title><type><![CDATA[link]]></type><html><![CDATA[<p>Here&#8217;s my extremely superficial analysis of NovaGold.  NovaGold&#8217;s main asset is its Donlin Gold joint venture with Barrick.  Barrick has pretty much come out and said that it doesn&#8217;t think that the deposit is worth pursuing. Therefore, this stock is doomed.  I don&#8217;t care if Seth Klarman owns it.</p>
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<p>NovaGold&#8217;s <a href="http://www.novagold.com/section.asp?pageid=22043">press release</a> tries to put a positive spin on everything but pretty much NovaGold is screwed:</p>
<blockquote><p>In reference to Donlin Gold as well as Cerro Casale, Barrick Gold stated in its filing, among other things, that it &#8220;<strong>would not make a decision to construct them at this time</strong>. However, they contain large, long-life mineral resources in stable jurisdictions, have significant leverage to the price of gold, and therefore represent valuable long-term opportunities for the company.” Barrick Gold went on to say that it &#8220;will maintain and enhance the option value of these projects by advancing permitting activities, at reasonable costs, which in the case of Donlin Gold, will take a number of years.”</p></blockquote>
<p>If this deposit were economic, Barrick would pursue it.  Even if it were barely economic (or barely not), Barrick still might pursue it.  <em>This is what Barrick has done in the past</em>.  It went after a number of bad gold projects.  Then they didn&#8217;t make as much money as they should have made even though the price of gold skyrocketed.  So, the old CEO was fired.  In any case, if Barrick doesn&#8217;t want to pursue this deposit, then it is unlikely that any other senior miner will want to pursue it.</p>
<p><em>*Disclosure:  No position in NovaGold.</em></p>
<p><strong>Links</strong></p>
<p>Long Term Value, a value investing-oriented blog, has <a href="http://longtermvalue.wordpress.com/category/portfolio-holdings/novagold/">various posts mentioning NovaGold</a>.</p>
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