<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"?><oembed><version><![CDATA[1.0]]></version><provider_name><![CDATA[Glenn Chan&#039;s Random Notes on Investing]]></provider_name><provider_url><![CDATA[https://glennchan.wordpress.com]]></provider_url><author_name><![CDATA[GlennC]]></author_name><author_url><![CDATA[https://glennchan.wordpress.com/author/glennchan/]]></author_url><title><![CDATA[Pretium Resources (PVG) &#8211; Massive red&nbsp;flags]]></title><type><![CDATA[link]]></type><html><![CDATA[<p>Strathcona has was hired to oversee Pretium&#8217;s bulk sample program.  The purpose of these programs is to get a better idea of the amount of gold contained in a deposit since the gold distribution may be erratic and drilling samples very little of a deposit.</p>
<p>Strathcona has inexplicably resigned from the project.  This is a massive red flag for me.  In my opinion, Strathcona has a very good reputation as Graham Farquharson&#8217;s work is famous for uncovering the Bre-X fraud.  He has also continued to attack John Felderhof over his involvement in the fraud.  (Felderhof remains a free man, his children are reported to be millionaires, and has never been convicted.  I agree with Farquharson&#8217;s assessment.)  His company strikes me as having high integrity.  I was surprised that Strathcona would work with Pretium in the first place since Pretium&#8217;s quality control checks were consistent with fraud (see my <a href="https://glennchan.wordpress.com/2012/10/12/reading-ni-43-101-reports-data-verification/">previous post</a>).  It wouldn&#8217;t make sense for Pretium to hire Strathcona if fraud was occurring because Strathcona&#8217;s engineers are smart and have integrity.  Now I&#8217;m less confused and strongly believe that the red flags are too big to ignore.</p>
<p>Here is Pretium&#8217;s <a href="http://www.pretivm.com/news/news-details/2013/Pretium-Resources-Inc-Bulk-Sample-Update/default.aspx">press release</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p id="yui_3_9_1_1_1381416902787_1259">Strathcona Mineral Services Ltd. (&#8220;Strathcona&#8221;), which had been engaged as the independent Qualified Person to oversee and report on the 10,000-tonne bulk sample for the Program, has resigned from the Project.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><!--more-->I started shorting Pretium today.  I would assume that Strathcona will write a letter to the board of directors indicating their concerns.  The board will have a duty to issue a press release stating any problems with the deposit and uncovered by the bulk sample program.  It could be the catalyst for bringing the share price down.</p>
<p>On the other hand, it&#8217;s possible that Pretium isn&#8217;t a fraud (or is only a partial fraud and that the deposit contains real gold).</p>
<p>Market cap:  US$480.61M<br />
Pretium is listed on both the NYSE and TSE.<br />
The interest on the borrow is around 1%.</p>
<h4><strong>Links</strong></h4>
<p><a href="https://glennchan.wordpress.com/2012/10/12/reading-ni-43-101-reports-data-verification/">Reading NI 43-101 reports: Data verification</a> &#8211; My previous post that explains what you should look for and an analysis of Pretium&#8217;s data verification.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.incakolanews.blogspot.ca/2013/10/trying-to-piece-together-pretium-pvg.html">IKN</a> &#8211; A good blog for no-nonsense news.  The blog contains profanity.</p>
<p><a href="http://business.financialpost.com/2012/07/20/in-mining-sector-projects-live-or-die-on-word-of-independent-geologists/">In mining sector, projects live or die on word of independent geologists</a> &#8211; News article where a Strathcona employee (Henrik Thalenhorst) comments on independent geologists and (basically) the pressures on their professional integrity.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061768/000114036113032160/xslForm13F_X01/form13fInfoTable.xml">Baupost Group&#8217;s 13-F</a> &#8211; Apparently Seth Klarman owns this.  Sigh&#8230;</p>
<p><em>*Disclosure:  Short Pretium.<br />
</em></p>
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