<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"?><oembed><version><![CDATA[1.0]]></version><provider_name><![CDATA[Glenn Chan&#039;s Random Notes on Investing]]></provider_name><provider_url><![CDATA[https://glennchan.wordpress.com]]></provider_url><author_name><![CDATA[GlennC]]></author_name><author_url><![CDATA[https://glennchan.wordpress.com/author/glennchan/]]></author_url><title><![CDATA[Conn&#8217;s originations are very&nbsp;high]]></title><type><![CDATA[link]]></type><html><![CDATA[<p>Conn&#8217;s originations seem to exceed the amount of money lent to its customers.</p>
<p>In FY2014, Conn&#8217;s originations were <strong>$1,075M</strong>.<br />
It provided <strong>$757.2M</strong> in in-house financing, including down payments and excluding insurance.<br />
The ratio between originations versus in-house financing was <strong>~142%</strong>.</p>
<p><a href="https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/conns-origination-exceeds-money-lent.png"><img data-attachment-id="4058" data-permalink="https://glennchan.wordpress.com/2014/09/26/conns-originations-are-very-high/conns-origination-exceeds-money-lent/" data-orig-file="https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/conns-origination-exceeds-money-lent.png" data-orig-size="872,86" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}" data-image-title="conns-origination-exceeds-money-lent" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/conns-origination-exceeds-money-lent.png?w=300" data-large-file="https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/conns-origination-exceeds-money-lent.png?w=872" class="alignnone size-large wp-image-4058" src="https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/conns-origination-exceeds-money-lent.png?w=1024&#038;h=101" alt="conns-origination-exceeds-money-lent" srcset="https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/conns-origination-exceeds-money-lent.png 872w, https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/conns-origination-exceeds-money-lent.png?w=150&amp;h=15 150w, https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/conns-origination-exceeds-money-lent.png?w=300&amp;h=30 300w, https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/conns-origination-exceeds-money-lent.png?w=768&amp;h=76 768w" sizes="(max-width: 872px) 100vw, 872px"   /></a></p>
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<p>One possible explanation for this is that restructurings, refinancings, and/or re-agings of old debt are being counted as new originations.  If so, such behaviour could cause loan performance data to be misleading.</p>
<p>Another possible explanation is that the origination amount includes <em>interest</em> payments along with principal payments.  However, not all of Conn&#8217;s historical loans are installment loans.  Conn&#8217;s used to offer charge accounts until Feb 29 2012.  Applying an unconventional definition of what a &#8220;balance&#8221; is should require an explanation as to how charge accounts (and their promotional interest rates) are treated.</p>
<p>*Origination amount data is from page 2 of Conn&#8217;s <a href="http://ir.conns.com/common/download/download.cfm?companyid=CONN&amp;fileid=779116&amp;filekey=8F5233C5-7081-4DF0-966F-529AB730BDF2&amp;filename=Combined_Portfolio_Summary_by_Quarter_2014-0901-0626pJC.pdf" target="_blank">Combined Portfolio Summary by Quarter</a>.  In-house financing data is calculated from Conn&#8217;s 10-Ks.  There may be errors in my calculations.<br />
**For a more precise picture, you can take into account the effect of downpayments, insurance, and sales tax.  I assume that those items do not materially affect the big picture.<br />
***Conn&#8217;s re-aging policies, charge-off policies, and troubled debt restructuring (TDR) accounting have changed over the years.</p>
<p><em>*Disclosure:  Short CONN via put options.</em></p>
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