<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"?><oembed><version><![CDATA[1.0]]></version><provider_name><![CDATA[Glenn Chan&#039;s Random Notes on Investing]]></provider_name><provider_url><![CDATA[https://glennchan.wordpress.com]]></provider_url><author_name><![CDATA[GlennC]]></author_name><author_url><![CDATA[https://glennchan.wordpress.com/author/glennchan/]]></author_url><title><![CDATA[Great Panther Silver (GPL /&nbsp;GPR.TO)]]></title><type><![CDATA[link]]></type><html><![CDATA[<p>I have a short position in Great Panther Silver because it seems like the company does not have strong cash flows.</p>
<p>Market cap:  US$156M<br />
Great Panther is listed on both the AMEX/NYSE MKT (symbol: GPL) and the TSX (symbol: GPR).<br />
Cost to borrow:  3.625%</p>
<p><!--more--></p>
<p>For background reading on the &#8216;negative cash flow miners&#8217; strategy, seem my post &#8220;<a title="My current thinking on mining stocks (Dec 2013)" href="https://glennchan.wordpress.com/2013/12/13/my-current-thinking-on-mining-stocks-dec-2013/">My current thinking on mining stocks (Dec 2013)</a>&#8220;.  You should do your own homework and come to your own conclusions as to what the cash flows of Great Panther&#8217;s producing mines are.</p>
<h2><strong>Cash flows</strong></h2>
<p>Net cash from operating activities was <strong>$8.618M</strong>.<br />
Additions to mineral properties, plant and equipment, and evaluation assets were <strong>-$13.524M</strong>.<br />
The two items combined total <strong>-$4.906M</strong>.</p>
<p>Note that the company is spending money on exploration of greenfield/brownfield projects.  The few million dollars spent on those activities should be added back because they have nothing to do with the company&#8217;s producing mines.</p>
<p>Additions to San Ignacio project: <strong>$1.177M</strong>.<br />
Exploration and evaluation expenses: <strong>$2.306M</strong>.<br />
Adjusted cash flow: <strong>-$1.423M</strong>.</p>
<p>Part of the reason why cash flow is low is due to the company&#8217;s corporate overhead.  For example, G&amp;A travel expenses were <strong>$380K</strong> and <strong>$659K</strong> for 2013 and 2012.  Rent expenses were <strong>$600K</strong> and <strong>$532K</strong> for 2013 and 2013.  If the company&#8217;s <strong>$7.836M</strong> of overhead were lower, then my adjusted cash flow figure could turn positive.  Nonetheless, I think that management will stay in place so it is unlikely that overhead will dramatically decrease.</p>
<p><a href="https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/gpl-statement-of-cash-flows.png"><img data-attachment-id="4081" data-permalink="https://glennchan.wordpress.com/2014/09/27/great-panther-silver-gpl-gpr-to/gpl-statement-of-cash-flows/" data-orig-file="https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/gpl-statement-of-cash-flows.png" data-orig-size="708,802" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}" data-image-title="gpl-statement-of-cash-flows" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/gpl-statement-of-cash-flows.png?w=265" data-large-file="https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/gpl-statement-of-cash-flows.png?w=708" class="alignnone size-large wp-image-4081" src="https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/gpl-statement-of-cash-flows.png?w=905&#038;h=1024" alt="gpl-statement-of-cash-flows" srcset="https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/gpl-statement-of-cash-flows.png 708w, https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/gpl-statement-of-cash-flows.png?w=132&amp;h=150 132w, https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/gpl-statement-of-cash-flows.png?w=265&amp;h=300 265w" sizes="(max-width: 708px) 100vw, 708px"   /></a></p>
<h2><strong>Income statement</strong></h2>
<p>In my opinion, too many mining companies capitalize expenses that should really be expensed.  For example, most mine development costs (such as moving aside waste rock to access ore) should be expensed.  That is the reason why I like to focus on cash flow rather than IFRS/GAAP/cGAAP income.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, it seems like the company&#8217;s producing mines are not producing accounting profits.</p>
<p>Gross profit: <strong>$0.640M</strong><br />
G&amp;A expenses:  <strong>-$7.836M</strong><br />
&#8220;Operating income&#8221;:  <strong>-$7.196M</strong></p>
<p><a href="https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/gpl-income-statement.png"><img data-attachment-id="4080" data-permalink="https://glennchan.wordpress.com/2014/09/27/great-panther-silver-gpl-gpr-to/gpl-income-statement/" data-orig-file="https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/gpl-income-statement.png" data-orig-size="688,688" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}" data-image-title="gpl-income-statement" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/gpl-income-statement.png?w=300" data-large-file="https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/gpl-income-statement.png?w=688" class="alignnone size-large wp-image-4080" src="https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/gpl-income-statement.png?w=1024&#038;h=1024" alt="gpl-income-statement" srcset="https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/gpl-income-statement.png 688w, https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/gpl-income-statement.png?w=150&amp;h=150 150w, https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/gpl-income-statement.png?w=300&amp;h=300 300w" sizes="(max-width: 688px) 100vw, 688px"   /></a></p>
<p><strong>Here is where some of the G&amp;A spending went:<br />
</strong></p>
<p><a href="https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/gpl-investor-relations.png"><img data-attachment-id="4078" data-permalink="https://glennchan.wordpress.com/2014/09/27/great-panther-silver-gpl-gpr-to/gpl-investor-relations/" data-orig-file="https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/gpl-investor-relations.png?w=499&#038;h=226" data-orig-size="499,226" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}" data-image-title="gpl-investor-relations" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/gpl-investor-relations.png?w=499&#038;h=226?w=300" data-large-file="https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/gpl-investor-relations.png?w=499&#038;h=226?w=499" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-4078" src="https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/gpl-investor-relations.png?w=499&#038;h=226" alt="gpl-investor-relations" width="499" height="226" srcset="https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/gpl-investor-relations.png 499w, https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/gpl-investor-relations.png?w=150&amp;h=68 150w, https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/gpl-investor-relations.png?w=300&amp;h=136 300w" sizes="(max-width: 499px) 100vw, 499px" /></a></p>
<h2><strong>Commodity price risk</strong></h2>
<p>There is some risk that uneconomic mines become profitable if commodity prices were to rise dramatically.  Great Panther is most sensitive to the prices of silver and gold, with very minor exposure to lead and zinc.  Their investor presentation ( greatpanther.com/files/doc_presentations/2014/july/Great-Panther-Silver-Limited_August-6-2014_Web.pdf ) provides the following figures:</p>
<p>Silver &#8211; 54%<br />
Gold &#8211; 36%<br />
Zinc &#8211; 5%<br />
Lead &#8211; 5%</p>
<p><em>*Disclosure:  Short GPL common shares.</em></p>
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