<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"?><oembed><version><![CDATA[1.0]]></version><provider_name><![CDATA[Glenn Chan&#039;s Random Notes on Investing]]></provider_name><provider_url><![CDATA[https://glennchan.wordpress.com]]></provider_url><author_name><![CDATA[GlennC]]></author_name><author_url><![CDATA[https://glennchan.wordpress.com/author/glennchan/]]></author_url><title><![CDATA[RH sales returns Part 2: Do they make&nbsp;sense?]]></title><type><![CDATA[link]]></type><html><![CDATA[<p>I did a quick look at a few other retailers that post their actual sales returns in their SEC filings (WSM, AEO, and NILE).  The pattern among those three is that sales returns as a percentage of revenue fluctuates very little.  The rapidly-growing online retailer NILE shows the most variation of the three, ranging from <strong>9.11%</strong> to <strong>10.60%</strong>.  RH&#8217;s range is from <strong>4.43%</strong> to <strong>7.47%</strong>.  Without the error disclosed in RH&#8217;s latest 10-K, the range is from <strong>10.22%</strong> to <strong>11.14%</strong>.</p>
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<p><a href="https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/actual-sales-returns-comparison.png"><img data-attachment-id="5092" data-permalink="https://glennchan.wordpress.com/2015/04/01/rh-sales-returns-part-2-do-they-make-sense/actual-sales-returns-comparison/" data-orig-file="https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/actual-sales-returns-comparison.png?w=607&#038;h=652" data-orig-size="607,652" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}" data-image-title="actual-sales-returns-comparison" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/actual-sales-returns-comparison.png?w=607&#038;h=652?w=279" data-large-file="https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/actual-sales-returns-comparison.png?w=607&#038;h=652?w=607" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-5092" src="https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/actual-sales-returns-comparison.png?w=607&#038;h=652" alt="actual-sales-returns-comparison" width="607" height="652" srcset="https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/actual-sales-returns-comparison.png 607w, https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/actual-sales-returns-comparison.png?w=140&amp;h=150 140w, https://glennchan.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/actual-sales-returns-comparison.png?w=279&amp;h=300 279w" sizes="(max-width: 607px) 100vw, 607px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1DiGj7cMpk0LzdidPHIUPlDXlf8grHZbr-jgcQRZDmYg/edit?usp=sharing">The spreadsheet above can be found on my Google Drive</a>.</p>
<p>I see two explanations (among many):</p>
<ol>
<li>The company has gotten really, really good at convincing customers to exchange merchandise rather than returning it.  The RH <a href="http://ir.restorationhardware.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=79100&amp;p=irol-video">lovestyle</a> is resonating with customers.</li>
<li>Actual sales returns as a percentage of revenues has stayed roughly the same.  The actual sales returns, merchandise exchanges, and/or revenues reported by RH may contain errors.</li>
</ol>
<h2><strong>What customers are saying about RH</strong></h2>
<p>You could look at what consumers are saying to try to figure out what has been happening with RH&#8217;s customer service.  Was there some dramatic change in RH&#8217;s customer service practices that would make the declining sales returns and growing merchandise exchanges seem plausible?</p>
<p>There are various consumer reviews of RH on sites like Yelp, ConsumerAffairs.com, Houzz.com, and <a href="https://plus.google.com/local/united%20states/s/restoration%20hardware">Google+</a>.  I would be cautious with Yelp and Consumer Affairs because those sites hide good reviews unless the business owner pays up.  Google+ is likely an honest review site.  One way to access the Google+ reviews is to follow this link: <a href="https://plus.google.com/local/united%20states/s/restoration%20hardware">https://plus.google.com/local/united%20states/s/restoration%20hardware</a>.  You can come to your own conclusions as to whether or not RH has dramatically improved its customer service.  Of course, anecdotal evidence from consumers does not necessarily prove anything.</p>
<p><em>*Disclosure:  Short RH via common shares and put options.</em></p>
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