<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"?><oembed><version><![CDATA[1.0]]></version><provider_name><![CDATA[Julia Galef]]></provider_name><provider_url><![CDATA[http://juliagalef.com]]></provider_url><author_name><![CDATA[Julia Galef]]></author_name><author_url><![CDATA[https://juliagalef.com/author/juliagalef/]]></author_url><title><![CDATA[The Update Project]]></title><type><![CDATA[link]]></type><html><![CDATA[<p>The goal of the Update Project is to help decisionmakers improve the accuracy of their models, especially as they relate to strategies for having a large positive impact on the world. What this means in practice is that I assemble small groups of thinkers across fields like tech, academia, the nonprofit world, or government, whose models of some topic differ. (See my <a href="http://juliagalef.com/open-questions/">open questions</a> page for some of the disagreements that have emerged so far.)</p>
<p>UP is based on a few core values:</p>
<p><em>Taking ideas seriously. </em>Typically, conversations about ideas feel kind of like recreational diversions: we enjoy batting around interesting thoughts and saying smart things, and then we go back to doing whatever we were already doing in our lives. Which is a fine thing to do &#8212; but at least sometimes, I think we should be asking ourselves questions like: &#8220;How could I tell if this idea were true? If it is true, what does imply I should be doing differently in my life? What else does it imply I&#8217;m wrong about?&#8221; And, zooming out: &#8220;Where are my blind spots? Which important questions should I be thinking about that I&#8217;m not? Which people should I be talking to?&#8221; In other words, taking ideas seriously means treating your worldview as something that affects outcomes in the world you care about &#8212; and therefore, wanting to make your worldview as full and accurate as possible.</p>
<p><em>Disagreements are interesting</em>. When thoughtful people with access to the same information reach very different conclusions from each other, we should be curious about <em>why</em>. I think we tend to be incurious about this simply because it&#8217;s so common that we&#8217;re used to it. But if, for example, a medical community is divided on whether Treatment A or B does a better job of curing some disease, they should want to get to the bottom of that disagreement, because the right answer matters &#8212; lives are at stake. And I claim the same is true, if  less directly, for open questions like <a href="http://juliagalef.com/open-questions/">these</a>.</p>
<p><em>Strong opinions, weakly held</em><strong>.</strong> One common failure mode I see in smart people is that they abstain from trying to have opinions about things because &#8220;I&#8217;m not an expert&#8221; or &#8220;It&#8217;s hard to know for sure.&#8221; Instead, I think we should be bold enough to venture guesses, expressed clearly enough such that it&#8217;s easy for someone else, or the universe, to prove us wrong. In the long run, I think this policy leads to much better models &#8212; and better thinkers &#8212; than the policy of trying to minimize our error in the short run.</p>
<p>&#8230;Other than those meta values, about how people should approach problems, the Update Project is pretty much ideologically neutral. Of course I personally have opinions about object-level things, but in my capacity running UP I&#8217;m not trying to promote any particular object-level views. I&#8217;m just banking on the assumption that if smart people follow good processes for evaluating ideas together, the net expected result is more accurate views.</p>
<p><strong>Why the name?</strong> In my circles, an &#8220;update&#8221; refers to a revision to one&#8217;s model. (Technically the reference is to a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_inference">Bayesian update</a>, but the way we use the term colloquially doesn&#8217;t usually mean something quite so precise.) For example, you might say, &#8220;I&#8217;ve updated on the fact that&#8230;&#8221; or &#8220;Okay, I&#8217;m updating in favor of the idea that&#8230;&#8221;</p>
<p>I like the word because of how matter-of-fact it is. &#8220;Changing one&#8217;s mind&#8221; feels so weighty and dramatic, but updating is just this workaday thing we do &#8212; or <em>should</em> do &#8212; all the time.</p>
<p><em>My time and expenses for this project are covered by a contract with the <a href="http://openphilanthropy.org">Open Philanthropy Project</a>.</em></p>
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