<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"?><oembed><version><![CDATA[1.0]]></version><provider_name><![CDATA[longandvariable]]></provider_name><provider_url><![CDATA[https://longandvariable.wordpress.com]]></provider_url><author_name><![CDATA[Tony Yates]]></author_name><author_url><![CDATA[https://longandvariable.wordpress.com/author/anthonyyates01/]]></author_url><title><![CDATA[The hawk&#8217;s talk about&nbsp;Greece]]></title><type><![CDATA[link]]></type><html><![CDATA[<p><a href="https://twitter.com/asentance/status/561891051162861568">Andrew Sentance tweeted</a>: &#8216;If Greece now &#8220;insolvent&#8221; why was UK not &#8220;insolvent&#8221; in 1945? Public debt/GDP = 200%+ <a class="twitter-timeline-link" title="http://www.res.org.uk/view/article5jan12Correspondence.html" href="http://t.co/JV9SCQ824b" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><span class="invisible">http://www.</span><span class="js-display-url">res.org.uk/view/article5j</span><span class="invisible">an12Correspondence.html</span><span class="tco-ellipsis"><span class="invisible"> </span>…</span></a> 25 yrs later was &lt;70%!&#8217;</p>
<p>The answer is:  it was insolvent.  The Marshall Plan amounted to roughly £3.3bn pounds over just 3 post war years 48-51, which was about 30% of nominal GDP at the time.  I imagine that might have helped us somewhat.</p>
<p>And, there was what sovereign debt researchers have termed &#8216;financial repression&#8217;.  Liquidation of government debt via inflation, sub-market real interest rates, regulation.  <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/res2/pdf/crbs.pdf">Reinhardt and Sbrancia</a> estimate that this liquidated about 3.3% of GDP&#8217;s worth of debt on average over 1945-1980 for the UK.  ie about 100% of GDP in total.  Measuring the contribution of these factors is not a precise science.  But still, you get a feel for the magnitudes involved.</p>
<p>So, it seems it wasn&#8217;t just &#8216;growth&#8217;.</p>
<p>Roughly 80% of the Greek sovereign debt is owed to the foreign official sector.  So the methods the UK used to steal from its mostly domestic bond holders aren&#8217;t so readily available.</p>
<p>Leaving all this aside, what does  Andrew Sentance think would happen to Greece if either the debt were not forgiven, or the generous terms to &#8216;repay it&#8217; [in quotes because of course no one expects much of it to be repaid] were not extended?</p>
<p>Of course Greece [the murky combination of the public and banking sector] is insolvent.  The Greek banks would collapse instantaneously without the ECB&#8217;s ELA.  And that would bankrupt what, 5-10% of the private sector too, over the next 12 months?   More?</p>
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