<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"?><oembed><version><![CDATA[1.0]]></version><provider_name><![CDATA[longandvariable]]></provider_name><provider_url><![CDATA[https://longandvariable.wordpress.com]]></provider_url><author_name><![CDATA[Tony Yates]]></author_name><author_url><![CDATA[https://longandvariable.wordpress.com/author/anthonyyates01/]]></author_url><title><![CDATA[Mind changes: post&nbsp;script]]></title><type><![CDATA[link]]></type><html><![CDATA[<p>Actually, I wonder about this mind changing business&#8230;.</p>
<p>Two correspondents, <a href="https://twitter.com/julianechave">Julian Echave</a>, and another, privately, questioned the crudeness of this concept.</p>
<p>One way of responding to what they said is to note that, for example, from a Bayesian perspective, the binary shift in beliefs is a bit of a nonsense.</p>
<p>Mind changing perhaps could mean, from this perspective:  given a binary choice between two policy options [say, minimum wage or no], my posterior probability mass on the event that a minimum wage of a given level would have such and such an effect on employment outcomes shifted &#8211; in the light of evidence &#8211; such that my binary choice shifted from preferring no minimum wage, to supporting one.</p>
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