<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"?><oembed><version><![CDATA[1.0]]></version><provider_name><![CDATA[longandvariable]]></provider_name><provider_url><![CDATA[https://longandvariable.wordpress.com]]></provider_url><author_name><![CDATA[Tony Yates]]></author_name><author_url><![CDATA[https://longandvariable.wordpress.com/author/anthonyyates01/]]></author_url><title><![CDATA[How to minimise the credibility damage of a rise in the inflation&nbsp;target]]></title><type><![CDATA[link]]></type><html><![CDATA[<p>I had an interesting exchange with Malcolm Barr at JP Morgan via email.  He made two points that were food for thought.</p>
<p>Both are aimed at finding ways to minimise the risk that a rise in the inflation target was interpreted as an old-fashioned fiscal measure, or a losing of heart to control inflation as against other things that those pressuring policymakers are concerned about.</p>
<p>Recall that the real motive for raising the target is to <em>improve</em> macroeconomic stabilisation &#8211; including inflation control &#8211; by making sure the interest rate hits the zero bound less often.</p>
<p>The first comment was that ideally the inflation target rise would be done in a coordinated fashion, internationally.  Most developed countries settled on 2% before the crisis.  If all moved to 4%, say, at the same time, this would increase the chance of observers buying the economics behind it, and not concluding that the UK was just a basket case country.  It would also minimise the chance of an exchange rate adjustment when the inflation target was announced.</p>
<p>A second point Malcolm made was about whether compensation might be devised for holders of gilts who had bought expecting only 2% inflation.   So that there was no chance of inferring there was a direct fiscal benefit from an inflation surprise.</p>
<p>Thinking this through would be tricky.</p>
<p>There are also benefits to gilt holders to consider, like the reduction in inflation uncertainty coming from making room at the zero bound.  [Although from the perspective of investors the inflation target rise might increase uncertainty].  One option &#8211; appropriate if the bond market delivered faithful judgements &#8211; would be to let the price reaction to the news determine the net cost/benefit.  But that assumption is obviously somewhat heroic.</p>
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