<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"?><oembed><version><![CDATA[1.0]]></version><provider_name><![CDATA[longandvariable]]></provider_name><provider_url><![CDATA[https://longandvariable.wordpress.com]]></provider_url><author_name><![CDATA[Tony Yates]]></author_name><author_url><![CDATA[https://longandvariable.wordpress.com/author/anthonyyates01/]]></author_url><title><![CDATA[Japan&#8217;s temporary overshoot&nbsp;attempt]]></title><type><![CDATA[link]]></type><html><![CDATA[<p>The Bank of Japan has been tinkering with its monetary policy, and one thing about it struck me as curious.</p>
<p>There is now the determination to try to overshoot the inflation target.  The idea is to try to raise the inflation expectations of a significant portion of those surveyed in Japan who think inflation will undershoot the current target.  I doubt this is going to succeed, although it may also do little harm.  The effort seems to be based on a hydraulic notion of why inflation expectations of some are under the target.  As though it&#8217;s assumed they guess inflation will be delta*target, where delta&lt;1.  Raise the target temporarily, and you get inflation expectations equal to the old, and actually desired target.  That lowers real rates [nominal rates minus expected inflation] boosting demand, and inflation itself.</p>
<p>However, expectations are probably not so hydraulic, especially in a country where monetary policy failure and weak inflation/deflation has brought more scrutiny and awareness.</p>
<p>If expectations are undershooting the target because some think that the BoJ lacks either an effective instrument, or the necessary resolve to change the situation, then simply raising the target won&#8217;t help.</p>
<p>The temporary overshoot intention isn&#8217;t helped by not putting a clear number on it, nor a duration.  So we will have no way of knowing whether the BoJ succeeded or not, and what might trigger some subsequent tightening.</p>
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