<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"?><oembed><version><![CDATA[1.0]]></version><provider_name><![CDATA[longandvariable]]></provider_name><provider_url><![CDATA[https://longandvariable.wordpress.com]]></provider_url><author_name><![CDATA[Tony Yates]]></author_name><author_url><![CDATA[https://longandvariable.wordpress.com/author/anthonyyates01/]]></author_url><title><![CDATA[The vicious circle impeding the entry of a new&nbsp;currency]]></title><type><![CDATA[link]]></type><html><![CDATA[<p>Cryptocurrency prices have been soaring and tanking and soaring again.  Here is a chart of the Bitcoin/£ exchange rate:<img data-attachment-id="4718" data-permalink="https://longandvariable.wordpress.com/2017/10/07/the-vicious-circle-impeding-the-entry-of-a-new-currency/screen-shot-2017-10-07-at-11-40-26/" data-orig-file="https://longandvariable.files.wordpress.com/2017/10/screen-shot-2017-10-07-at-11-40-26.png?w=608&#038;h=278" data-orig-size="608,278" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}" data-image-title="Screen Shot 2017-10-07 at 11.40.26" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://longandvariable.files.wordpress.com/2017/10/screen-shot-2017-10-07-at-11-40-26.png?w=608&#038;h=278?w=300" data-large-file="https://longandvariable.files.wordpress.com/2017/10/screen-shot-2017-10-07-at-11-40-26.png?w=608&#038;h=278?w=608" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-4718" src="https://longandvariable.files.wordpress.com/2017/10/screen-shot-2017-10-07-at-11-40-26.png?w=608&#038;h=278" alt="Screen Shot 2017-10-07 at 11.40.26" width="608" height="278" srcset="https://longandvariable.files.wordpress.com/2017/10/screen-shot-2017-10-07-at-11-40-26.png 608w, https://longandvariable.files.wordpress.com/2017/10/screen-shot-2017-10-07-at-11-40-26.png?w=150&amp;h=69 150w, https://longandvariable.files.wordpress.com/2017/10/screen-shot-2017-10-07-at-11-40-26.png?w=300&amp;h=137 300w" sizes="(max-width: 608px) 100vw, 608px" /></p>
<p>The following thought experiment shows how a new currency with a fixed supply protocol may find it hard to break through and gain wide usage.  One of the conditions for widespread use as a money is that it&#8217;s value is not too unstable.</p>
<p>You can imagine a period of relative stability, or at least predictable growth, when users think &#8216;this new currency could be the next medium of exchange&#8217;.  Demand rises in anticipation.  Given the existing cryptocurrency protocols, with supply unresponsive to demand, this implies a rise in the price.  Users observe the price volatility and become sceptical about its future as a medium of exchange, since its price is volatile, and demand falls.  The price of the currency falls again, confirming the sceptics&#8217; view of its prospects as a widely used money.  After a while in which only the hard-core optimists want to hold it, and with corresponding price stability, opinion turns again, and the cycle repeats itself.</p>
<p>Of course words like &#8216;volatile&#8217;, &#8216;rise&#8217;, &#8216;falls&#8217; are relative to the alternatives.  So this is a comment about how it may be hard to displace a currency which is managed so that the price absorbs fluctuations in demand.</p>
<p>A basket case currency, with even less desirable price dynamics, would be easier to displace.</p>
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