<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"?><oembed><version><![CDATA[1.0]]></version><provider_name><![CDATA[Occupied Palestine | فلسطين]]></provider_name><provider_url><![CDATA[https://occupiedpalestine.wordpress.com]]></provider_url><author_name><![CDATA[occupiedpalestine]]></author_name><author_url><![CDATA[https://occupiedpalestine.wordpress.com/author/hajarhajar/]]></author_url><title><![CDATA[‘Israel will be biggest loser in region after changes,&#8217; expert&nbsp;says]]></title><type><![CDATA[link]]></type><html><![CDATA[<p>15 March 2011, Tuesday / ERCAN YAVUZ, ANKARA</p>
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<p>Middle East  expert Veysel Ayhan says that Israel will be the biggest loser of the  popular revolutions in Arab countries, predicting that this process will  eventually lead to the establishment of an independent Palestinian  state.</span></td>
<p>Ayhan, a lecturer and associate  professor at Abant İzzet Baysal University and a Middle Eastern expert  in the Middle East Strategic Research Center (ORSAM), told Today&#8217;s Zaman  in an interview that the popular uprisings in the Middle East will grow  big enough to engulf all countries without exception.</p>
<p>For him, the biggest risk for the world would be chaos in Saudi  Arabia. “If the crisis in Saudi Arabia lasts longer, there will be  abnormal hikes in world oil prices. That is, the events in Jeddah will  affect the lives of people in London and New York. The main threat for  Saudi Arabia will be the Shiites,” he argued.</p>
<p>He also claimed that if Turkey takes constitutional reforms and the  democratic initiative processes to successful completion, it has the  chance of being a star in the region.</p>
<p><em>&#8211; As a person who has conducted fieldwork in many countries in Middle East and North Africa, how do you explain the uprisings? </em></p>
<p>In the Middle East, there has always been a huge potential for  dissident movements. There were different ethnic and sectarian problems  in each country. The Western powers invaded these lands some 100 years  ago and created administrations that would act in line with their  interests. In the Cold War era, some countries were controlled by the US  and others by the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). The two  superpowers lent military, intelligence and other sorts of support to  these administrations. Thanks to such help, the administrations could  easily suppress the opposition movements. After the Cold War era, the  big guns were no longer able to control the social movements in the  region. And the societies turned into highly explosive bombs under a  steel vest imposed on them.</p>
<p><em>&#8211; So you say that they are also revolting against the West? </em></p>
<p>The radicalization of the region has been under way for the past 10  years. The US interventions in the region, Israel&#8217;s policies and the  Palestinian issue have radicalized the people in the region. Israel&#8217;s  policies not only created hatred against Israel, but also urged the  people in the region to question their own governments that tended to  keep silent about Israel&#8217;s policies and even supported them.</p>
<p><em>&#8211; Social networks have played a great role in the uprisings. </em></p>
<p>During the last 20 years, the societies in the region have seen great  changes. For instance, about two-thirds of Egypt&#8217;s population today is  young people and nine out of every 10 people are unemployed. About 45  percent of Jordan&#8217;s population today is Palestinian immigrants. Young  people tend to monitor and be affected by the developments around the  globe. When they compare the their own systems with the world, they can  see the contradictions.</p>
<p><em>&#8211; Is it a new wave spearheaded by young people? </em></p>
<p>Yes, certainly. But these movements should not be confused with the  revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia. The velvet and orange revolutions  were nothing but the changing of the administrations with external  support. The movements in the Middle East are not something planned or  manipulated by the West. They are just natural movements. These protests  seek to change not only the people in power, but also the systems. And  the Western countries have realized the risks this change may pose and  therefore, they advise a controlled transition. It is for this reason US  President Barack Obama described the appointment of the head of the  military council as the head of the government as a democratic step. Can  military rule be considered a step toward democracy? No one questions  this.</p>
<p><em>&#8211; Don&#8217;t you think that the Greater Middle East Project and the  moderate Islam projects of the US have a role in these movements? </em></p>
<p>These revolts have nothing to do with the Greater Middle East Project  or any project about moderate Islam. All of these movements originated  from deeply rooted social problems. And this is not something that just  started in 2010. It should be noted that these revolts came at a time  when the tyrants of Egypt, Libya and Yemen were preparing to hand over  their posts to their sons. The case of Tunisia paved the way for the  opposition movements in the Arab world to rush to the streets for  protests.</p>
<h2 style="line-height:130%;font-size:16px;">Even Turkish TV series have had a certain effect</h2>
<p><em>&#8211; Did Turkey have an impact on the revolts? </em></p>
<p>The changes Turkey has experienced during the last 10 years affected  the anti-regime movements in Middle East and Northern Africa as well.  They have seen how Turkey can develop policies and take initiatives in  spite of the influence of the US and Israel. This attitude of Turkey has  helped the Arab world boost its self-confidence. The Turkish  Parliament&#8217;s denying permission to US troops to use Turkish territories  in an attack against Iraq on March 1, the Palestinian question, and  Turkey&#8217;s attitude concerning sanctions on Iran have caused the peoples  of the region to become alienated from their regimes. From a cultural  perspective, Turkish TV series have made a great impact for change.  Turkish TV series that show a modern lifestyle have led to Arab peoples&#8217;  questioning their own lifestyles.</p>
<p><em>&#8211; And regarding the deterioration of Turkish-Israeli relations&#8230; </em></p>
<p>Recently, it was only Turkey that raised objections to Israel&#8217;s  policies. Arab peoples who are hostile to Israel have realized that  their rulers are hypocritical. The leaders in the Arab world have failed  even to see that their societies have been radicalized.</p>
<p><em>&#8211; Where are the revolutions headed for? How many countries will be affected? </em></p>
<p>These movements will spread to all Middle Eastern countries. This is  an indisputable fact. This is because it is a groundswell. Some  countries can get rid of it by making some reforms. But some of them do  not have any chance but to completely replace their systems.</p>
<p><em>&#8211; What can you say about individual countries? </em></p>
<p>Egypt may come away from the revolution with relatively fewer  problems. Despite ethnic and sectarian differences, the demands for  rights and rule of law are independent of ethnic or sectarian  differences. The opposition movements in Egypt are not as radical as  al-Qaeda. Egypt is relatively free from the cleavages that could lead to  a civil war. All opposition movements voice demands for democracy.  Therefore, the change in Egypt remains restricted to demands for more  democracy, despite the ethnic and religious diversities, and has  occurred in a less violent manner.</p>
<p>In Libya, however, the process is much bloodier. It will be difficult  for Muammar Gaddafi to maintain his post. But the transition period  will be more violent in Libya, being a country consisting of a multitude  of tribes. Although the country is largely free from ethnic and  sectarian differences, tribes control 85 percent of the country.  Therefore, even if Gaddafi agrees to go away, the problems will stay.</p>
<p>In Bahrain, 65 percent of the population is Shiite. The political  power is in the hand of the Sunnis while the Shiites are excluded from  the political system. The Shiites are allowed to have at most 18 seats  in Parliament. Moreover, the existing regime sees the Shiites as a  threat. After mass demonstrations, they decided to introduce reforms,  but it is unlikely that they will allow the Shiites to control the  government. In Yemen, Shiites are at the forefront of the uprisings. It  seems that even a leader change will not bring tranquility to the  country.</p>
<h2 style="line-height:130%;font-size:16px;">The Shiite decade</h2>
<p><em>&#8211; Are things more complicated in the Middle East than in North Africa? </em></p>
<p>The next decade will be that of the Shiites. In 1979, the Shiites of  the region revolted, but they could not make it. But no Middle Eastern  country can ignore the Shiites now. In Lebanon, the Shiites rule the  country. In Iraq, political stability cannot be ensured by ignoring the  Shiites. The Shiites in Iran have always opted for adopting a Persian  identity. Iraq will be the center of the new Shiite wave. In Iraq, Arab  Shiism woke up from a deep sleep and has the potential to make an impact  on the entire region.</p>
<p><em>&#8211; Which country will be next? </em></p>
<p>There will be no country in the region that will be unaffected by the  uprisings. It seems that Saudi Arabia is the next country in line. The  biggest risk for the world would be chaos in Saudi Arabia. If the crisis  in Saudi Arabia lasts longer, there will be abnormal hikes in the  world&#8217;s oil prices. That is, the events in Jeddah will affect the lives  of people in London or New York. The main threat for Saudi Arabia will  be the Shiites.</p>
<p><em>&#8211; Then, Western intervention will come, won&#8217;t it? </em></p>
<p>Any intervention from Western or other countries in the crisis in the  region will deepen it further. What happened when the US and its allies  intervened in Iraq? What happened when NATO meddled with Afghanistan?  Interventions will make the situation all the more inextricable.</p>
<p><em>&#8211; Rebels do not trust the West, do they? </em></p>
<p>All of the administrations in the region&#8217;s countries had been  Western-centric and were established to serve to the interests of the  West. The West will still try to impose solutions that best serve its  own interests. Currently, the demands voiced by the public do not go  well with the interests of the West. New administrations will have to  rely on their own public for legitimacy, but not on the West. No  solution offered by the West will be deemed sincere or credible.</p>
<p><em>&#8211; What do you expect will happen in Syria and Jordan? </em></p>
<p>Some political and economic reforms were made in Jordan. But there is  still potential for civil war in the country. In Syria, everyone is  dreaming of a revolution. Still, we cannot expect a change in leadership  in this country. There is social consensus that Bashar al-Assad should  continue to rule the country. People with diverse religious and  sectarian backgrounds live in Syria. Druzes, Shiites, Kurds, Arabs,  Christians and Armenians want the Assad government in office. It may be  difficult to avoid street demonstrations in Syria. An ethnic or  sectarian civil war may erupt. Therefore, all groups will be happy with  the continuation of the existing administration in Syria.</p>
<p>Kuwait is another country that has the potential for political  turmoil. There are serious rifts and disagreements within the ruling  al-Sabah family. Some members of the Sabah family were removed from  office, but they have established serious contacts with the Shiite  groups in the country.</p>
<p><em>&#8211; Will Morocco and Algeria face similar unrest? </em></p>
<p>Morocco and Algeria will find themselves inevitably engulfed by the  process. Algeria had seen similar processes before, but this time, there  will be an uprising against the army as well. Because of the violent  character of the change in Libya, opposition movements in Morocco and  Algeria are taking it slow.</p>
<p><em>&#8211; Will Turkey&#8217;s time come? </em></p>
<p>Whichever country has barriers to political participation and the  freedom of worship will be ultimately be affected by this wave. What  distinguishes Turkey from other countries is that it holds elections on a  regular basis. Elections tend to prevent bursts of social movements.  Kurds and Alevis pose big risks for Turkey. If we fail to lift the  10-percent election threshold and if we do not implement the  constitutional reforms after the approaching elections and if we do not  maintain the democratic initiative, the streets will start to be filled  with protesters after a while. I believe that there will be some  preliminary protests in March.</p>
<p><em>&#8211; What distinguishes Turkey from other countries? </em></p>
<p>If the democratic initiative launched by the ruling Justice and  Development Party (AK Party), had not been blocked, then I could say  that similar uprisings would not be seen in Turkey. But the initiative  was suspended. The groups that have problems with the system will start  to hold street demonstrations in March. Turkey is likely to witness  similar incidents. Bu if it drafts a new constitution after the  elections and abolishes the roadblocks to freedoms, then it will become  not only a source of inspiration, but also a center of attraction for  the Middle East. Turkey may become the most influential country in the  region as it will take some time before the US and other Western  countries recover their former strength in the region.</p>
<p><em>&#8211; What if Turkey fails to implement the reform process? </em></p>
<p>If Turkey cannot handle this transformation, it will begin to revert  into a repressive regime just like others in the region. Unhappy and  marginalized groups will take to the streets. The powers within and  outside the region will start to meddle with this internal sensitivity  of Turkey. For this reason, Turkey must complete the reforms as soon as  possible. When Turkey completes its reforms, then these countries will  take the Ankara criteria as their model. And in 10 years, Turkey will be  the most influential country in the region. Turkey is facing a historic  opportunity.</p>
<p><em>&#8211; Is it likely that democracy will take hold in the Middle East in relatively short period of time? </em></p>
<p>I don&#8217;t agree with the argument that it will take some time before  democracy arrives in the Middle East. Actually, democracy is highly  compatible with the peoples in the Middle East. Groups with diverse  religious beliefs and faith have been living together in the region.  Historically, they are tolerant of each other. If suitable systems can  be established, their transition to democracy may take a shorter route.  It is true that there were tyrants in the region, but there were never  blood thirsty dictators like Hitler, Mussolini or Franco. Even today,  one can see that a leader like Sarkozy has fascist ideas.</p>
<h2 style="line-height:130%;font-size:16px;">Biggest loser: Israel</h2>
<p><em>&#8211; Who will suffer from the biggest damage in this process? </em></p>
<p>If we are to draw a list of the countries which will be the losers of  the wave of change in the Middle East, Israel will certainly be in the  number one position of this list. While it may not be visible in the  short term, but Israel will suffer the biggest harm from this wave of  change in the medium term.</p>
<p><em>&#8211; How will Palestine be affected? </em></p>
<p>Thanks to these riots, the process of the establishment of a  Palestinian state will be completed. Thus, the biggest winner will be  Palestinians. In my opinion, these developments offer a good opportunity  for an independent Palestinian state.</p>
<p><em>&#8211; Will Iran emerge as a more important country with Shiites gaining power all across the region? </em></p>
<p>If Iran can introduce some reforms inside, it may survive the process  unaffected and become a center of attraction for the Shiites. There are  serious internal problems in Iran, and the country has many ethnic and  sectarian groups. These groups do not want a radical change in the  system; they just want to reform it. If these reforms cannot be  implemented, then Iran will certainly be hit hard by these revolutions  in the region. The news indicates Iran has already been impacted by the  unrest.</p>
<p></span></p>
<p><a href="http://www.todayszaman.com/newsDetail_getNewsById.action?load=detay&amp;newsId=238235&amp;link=238235">‘Israel will be biggest loser in region after changes,&#8217; expert says</a>.</p>
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