<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"?><oembed><version><![CDATA[1.0]]></version><provider_name><![CDATA[Occupied Palestine | فلسطين]]></provider_name><provider_url><![CDATA[https://occupiedpalestine.wordpress.com]]></provider_url><author_name><![CDATA[occupiedpalestine]]></author_name><author_url><![CDATA[https://occupiedpalestine.wordpress.com/author/hajarhajar/]]></author_url><title><![CDATA[Israel&#8217;s narrowing options]]></title><type><![CDATA[link]]></type><html><![CDATA[<div id="lead">Al-Ahram Weekly | Region |  April 1, 2011</div>
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<div><strong>The spread of democratic revolutions in the Arab world has already blunted the usual belligerence of Israel, writes Saleh Al-Naami</strong></div>
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<p>It was 10.30am last Saturday when the mobile phone of an official  closely linked with Ismail Haniyeh, the prime minister of Gaza, rang. On  the other end of the line was an official in the Egyptian Foreign  Ministry. The two men spoke for 25 minutes, discussing ways of  preventing renewed Israeli attacks on Gaza. Israel&#8217;s army had already  attacked civilian targets in Gaza and resistance movements retaliated  with attacks on Israeli cities situated near Gaza, including Beersheba  and Ashdod. Thirteen Palestinians died in the recent attacks.</p>
<p>Soon after that call, Haniyeh gathered some of his ministers and key  figures of Hamas for further discussion on the situation. Everyone  agreed to accept Egypt&#8217;s offer of mediation. Subsequently, the Egyptians  got in touch with the Americans and the Israelis and managed to  reactivate the undeclared &#8220;period of calm&#8221; that used to exist between  Palestinian factions and Israel. In response, Hamas called a meeting  with representatives of Palestinian factions and invited the media to  witness the discussion. The meeting ended in a pledge to observe the  &#8220;calm&#8221; so long as Israel does the same.</p>
<p>The attacks didn&#8217;t stop immediately, however. On Sunday morning, two  members of Islamic Jihad were killed in northern Gaza, having been  fired upon by a pilotless drone. Israel claimed that the men were  getting ready to fire rockets, something that Jihad denies. Apart from  that, it seems that the Israelis and Palestinians are eager to restore  the &#8220;calm&#8221;. Generally speaking, the Palestinian public and media remain  unaware of the role Egypt played behind the scenes to stave off attacks  on Gaza. But for the first time in years, there has been great  satisfaction in Gaza over Egypt&#8217;s official statements.</p>
<p>When Foreign Minister Nabil El-Arabi warned Israel last Thursday of  the consequences of attacking Gaza, the Palestinians were thrilled.  El-Arabi&#8217;s statement was brief, but it drew a lot of comments among the  Palestinian public, and many started comparing his tone with that of his  predecessor, Ahmed Abul-Gheit. Suleiman Al-Awawdah, 53, owner of a  workshop in Nuseirat Refugee Camp, said that El-Arabi&#8217;s statements  dissuaded Israel from taking large-scale action against Gaza. Other  factors, however, may have combined to thwart Israel&#8217;s belligerent  tendencies.</p>
<p>The initial reaction of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu was that  Israel was &#8220;capable and willing&#8221; of stopping &#8220;terrorism&#8221;. But he later  qualified his statement, noting that his government was &#8220;interested in  maintaining the calm&#8221;. Israel&#8217;s options have particularly dwindled  following recent changes in the Arab world. The range of actions that  was once available to Israel is narrowing. Israeli military commentator  Alon Ben- David believes that Israel can no longer antagonise the Arabs  with impunity. A major operation in Gaza would incur such a violent  reaction by the Arab public that Arab governments would be forced to  take extreme measures against Israel.</p>
<p>In statements to Israel&#8217;s Channel 10, Ben-David said that Egypt has  the power to harm Israel, its security and its economy. And the  international community is unlikely to blame it if it does. &#8220;It is true  that the Egyptians are now busy with their own domestic affairs and are  leaving Israel alone. But a major operation in Gaza would send  demonstrators into Cairo streets&#8230; and the Egyptian Military Council  would find it hard to not listen to them. Remember that Hosni Mubarak  and Omar Suleiman are no longer in power,&#8221; Ben-David remarked.</p>
<p>Israel should tone down its &#8220;appetite for vengeance,&#8221; concluded  another analyst. Former Mossad chief Danny Yatom said that Israel should  be particularly wary of the mood in Jordan, which he called Israel&#8217;s  most crucial ally in the region. The loss of Jordanian regime, from  Israel&#8217;s point of view, would be much worse than the toppling of  Mubarak&#8217;s regime. Yatom reminded the Israelis that Jordan has the  longest borders with Israel and that many Israelis live close to its  borders. &#8220;Let&#8217;s not give the nationalists and the Islamists ammunition  with which to attack the Hashemite regime at this particular moment,&#8221;  Yatom advised his countrymen.</p>
<p>Israel&#8217;s refusal to freeze settlements in the West Bank and  Jerusalem has come back to haunt it. Israel had alienated many of its  friends over the settlements issue, and as a result can no longer rely  on their international backing. Amnon Abramovich, a journalist with  Israel Channel 2, said that Netanyahu has exercised self-restraint so  far, but that&#8217;s partly because he had no other options. Israel&#8217;s  isolation makes it hard for the prime minister to rally regional and  international support for attacks against the Palestinians. Netanyahu is  &#8220;lost and doesn&#8217;t know what to do about Hamas, aside from waiting,&#8221;  Abramovich stated.</p>
<p>According to Abramovich, Israel is more isolated than at any time  before in its history. Consequently, its ability to punish Palestinian  factions has been reduced. On Monday, Israel&#8217;s former Justice Minister  Yossi Beilin wrote in <em>Israel Today</em> that it would be wrong to  assume that Israel&#8217;s last offensive in Gaza had deterred the Palestinian  resistance. Israel has nothing to gain from another war, and everything  to lose. The world is in no mood to see children being killed by  Israeli bombs. An Israeli attack on Gaza would be so embarrassing to  Obama that the US president may refrain from vetoing a Security Council  resolution against Israel, Beilin remarked.</p>
<p>In an article recently published in <em>Maariv</em>, the rightwing  writer Ben-Dror Yemini warned of the consequences of another attack on  Gaza on the scale of the Molten Lead operation two years ago. Contrary  to the widespread impression, Yemini said, the recent war in Gaza was a  big failure for Israel. On the domestic Palestinian scene, it was  evident that the Israeli military escalation has hampered reconciliation  efforts. Netanyahu has already told Mahmoud Abbas that he needs to  choose between Hamas and Israel.</p>
<p>Still, things are bound to change for Israel. Its reluctance to  strike back at Gaza is just the beginning. From now on, it will have to  think twice before unleashing its war machine on the Palestinians. As  democracy spreads in the Arab world, Israel&#8217;s appetite for aggression is  likely to subside.</p>
<p><a href="http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2011/1041/re3.htm">Source</a></p>
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