<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"?><oembed><version><![CDATA[1.0]]></version><provider_name><![CDATA[Revolutionary Initiative]]></provider_name><provider_url><![CDATA[http://revolutionary-initiative.com]]></provider_url><author_name><![CDATA[Revolutionary Initiative]]></author_name><author_url><![CDATA[https://revolutionary-initiative.com/author/revolutionaryinitiative/]]></author_url><title><![CDATA[International situation: FAVOURABLE or&nbsp;UNFAVOURABLE?]]></title><type><![CDATA[link]]></type><html><![CDATA[<div><strong>by C. P. Gajurel ‘Gaurav’</strong><strong>, Secretary of UCPN-Maoist</strong></p>
<p>Communist Movement is an internationalist movement. Goal of all   communists, provided they are truly communists, is communism. We should   not be confused about vulgar distortions of communism whether it is   ‘National communism’ or ‘Euro communism’. Internationalist nature of   communists is characterized by the principle ‘either we all reach or   none of us’. This is the basis of proletarian internationalism.</p>
<p>International situation is not same as proletarian internationalism.</p>
<p>Apart from the domestic situation, which is decisive, Communist   movement is definitely influenced by international situation of the   given time. Development of communist movement of a single country   definitely depends upon the favourable or unfavourable international   situation. Success or failure of revolution of individual country also   largely depends on favourable or unfavourable international situation.   In many cases, the question of ‘unfavourable international situation’ is   being (mis)used by rightists or revisionists to justify their   degeneration from a communist or revolutionary to a revisionist or a   bourgeois politician. None of the revisionists of the world declare   themselves as revisionists; rather they try to show that they are   revolutionaries and are still communists. Capitalist class is an   exploiter and oppressor class. So it is quite natural that the   politicians openly representing the class interest of this class will   not be able to garner support from the broad masses.<br />
<!--more-->So in order to garner support of the broad masses, the revisionists,   who represent the class interest of the bourgeoisie, disguise themselves   as “communists”. They always distort the revolutionary line and   situation in service of the bourgeoisie. They are the people who   sabotage the revolution from within. Words like “Communism”,   “revolution” are the masks of revisionists under which they cover their   ugly bourgeois face. Revisionists of this era always prolong or delay  or  stop the revolution in the pretext of “unfavourable” international   situation. They have regular and long time idea which states that no   revolution can take place when there is “unfavourable international   situation” and for them “unfavourable international situation” is   permanent.</p>
<p>Thus the conclusion of this statement is that revolution cannot take   place at this era. Therefore, while making assessment of the   international situation, we should not be the victim of permanently “no   favourable situation therefore no revolution”.</p>
<p>We should be realistic in making   assessment of the international situation. We should adopt Maoist   approach while making assessment of the international situation.   Definitely there are some serious unfavourable factors which we cannot   ignore. Side by side there are some favourable factors which we have to   take into account. Let us try to make a brief summation of bright side   as well as the dark side of the present international situation in   making revolution.</p>
<p><strong>Absence of international organization</strong></p>
<p>We have no strong international organization or strong international   centre of communist parties at this moment. The Third International   which was initiated and led by Lenin himself was disbanded during the   time of 2nd world war at the behest of capitalist and imperialist   countries in order to pave the way for ‘Anti-fascist united front’   against fascist imperialist Germany.</p>
<p>It seems that the intention of Stalin, who was the main leader of the   Third International after the demise of Lenin, was not to dissolve the   Communist International permanently. Stalin formed COMINFORM (Communist   Information Centre) under his leadership after the end of the 2nd WW.   But it was far from being developed to an international centre like   COMINTERN. Gradually, the Cominform became passive and virtually it   became defunct.</p>
<p>Now, we have international embryonic centre of communist parties and   organisations, the Revolutionary Internationalist Movement (RIM). But   its strength is limited.</p>
<p><strong>Absence of socialist block<br />
</strong><br />
It is true that there was no international centre like Comintern during   the time the Chinese revolution that became victorious in the year  1949.  But there was socialist Russia and international socialist block  which  pro-vided very significant support to the Chinese revolution. We  have no  such international socialist block to day. This is darkest part  of the  present international situation. It seems that had there been   international socialist base, the New Democratic Revolution would have   been succeeded long before and the Nepalese society would have been   grappling for socialism by now.</p>
<p><strong>Dearth of international working class movement</strong></p>
<p>It is also true that there was neither Communist International nor   Socialist block during the time of Socialist revolution in Russia in   1919. But there was very strong working class movement in Europe and   socialist revolution in Germany was very close to success. The strength   of the working class movement was a very strong support to the Russian   revolution. But we have no such strong working class movement in any   continent at present.</p>
<p><strong>Hostility among imperialist countries not in climax</strong></p>
<p>There is one common international factor in Russian and Chinese   revolution that the Russian revolution succeeded during the time of 1st   WW and the Chinese revolution succeeded during the 2nd WW. It does not   mean that WW is essential part of the success of every revolution. It  is  worth to be considered that during the time of WW, the imperialist   powers were cutting each others’ throat. One imperialist country was   enemy for another imperialist country. The hostility among the   imperialist countries was so ferocious that one’s existence depended on   elimination of the other. They had little time to fight against   communist forces during the time of WW. There is no doubt that   contradiction among various imperialist forces exists today, but it has   not reached to the level of hostility of eliminating each other.</p>
<p><strong>Situation—provided or can be created?</strong></p>
<p>When we talk about the favourable international situation, there are   some aspects to be considered. Firstly, the international situation is   favourable in the given time and the revolutionaries can have the   opportunity to utilize the favourable situation as outside support of   the revolution. If this situation exists it is well and good. All the   revolutionary parties will wish such a situation to prevail. Such   situation is always welcomed. But our wish does not determine everything   including the favourable international situation.</p>
<p>Secondly, the duty of the revolutionaries is to create such a  situation  which helps the revolution to grow and to succeed.  Revolutionaries do  not wait for a good fortune to arrive. Such a  situation may or may not  be completely favourable. If we cannot create  completely favourable  situation, we should try to create relatively  favourable situation. If  we cannot even achieve relatively favourable  situation, we should try  to create such a situation which is not harmful  to the revolution. What  often happens is that at the era of imperialism  and proletarian  revolution it is difficult for the communist  revolutionaries to get a  readymade favourable international situation.</p>
<p>Third, favourable or unfavourable situation is not a static  phenomenon.  It goes on changing depending on the changed situation. In  many cases  the revolution itself causes the international situation to  be changed  and the situation goes the other way round. The revolution is  itself a  force which brings change in the international situation and   unfavourable situation turns to be relatively favourable or at least not   harmful to the revolution. It is evident from the event of Nepalese   revolution. When we initiated the historic People’s War (in February 13,   1996), the international situation was not at all favourable for the   revolution. Eleven long years of PW has caused change in the national as   well as the international situation. It is obvious that the   international situation is less unfavourable for the revolution today   than it was during the initiation of the PW. We will mention about some   of the emerging relatively favourable factors at the international   level.</p>
<p><strong>Emergence of anti-imperialist forces</strong></p>
<p>Mao while making assessment of the international situation arrived at  a  conclusion that Asia, Africa and Latin America are the ‘storm  centers’  of the world revolution. Still it holds good to some extent.  There was  revolutionary wave in the Latin American countries during the  time of  Cuban revolution and consequently during the 60s and 70s. After  the  bloody coup in Chile in 1972, communist movement in Latin America  had  to face a big setback. Nevertheless, anti-imperialist struggle   continued in most of the Latin American countries at different level.   Since last six or seven years, there is a kind of anti- US imperialist   wave in most of the countries in Latin America. Parties upholding the   principle of ‘Bolivarian socialism’ are winning the presidential and   parliamentary elections. Some of the governments like that in Venezuela   have infuriated the U S administration by nationalizing the big oil   companies owned by the US big capitalists. The other ‘socialist   governments’ also follow the same line. The Hugo Chavez government   further infuriated the US government when it (Chavez government) signed a   large arm deal quite recently with Russia. The recent developments in   Latin America should be considered as favourable factor at the   international level. These developments in Latin America should be   considered very significant especially in a situation when there is no   socialist block to support the revolution.</p>
<p><strong>Severe economic crisis</strong></p>
<p>Severe crisis that engulfed the imperialist world has shaken the   imperialist system itself. It is one of the severest economic crises   shaking the imperialist system that has recurred after 70 years. The   crisis has not been overcome. The economists assume that the counter   shock of this economic quake is more dangerous which is yet to come. The   imperialist system has been so weakened that it is struggling for its   survival. The revolutionary movements in Europe and US appeared to be  in  hibernation since long years. The ruling class is afraid of   revolutionary upsurge in its citadel. It seems that the imperialist   system will not be able to withstand another crisis, which it is assumed   may recur within some years, because there is no substantial recovery.   Such crisis will definitely be overcome by revolution.</p>
<p><strong>Attraction to Socialism</strong></p>
<p>History of communist movement has proven that socialism or communist   movement cannot be destroyed by outside intervention of the imperialist   power; rather it is destroyed from within. Capitalist roaders within   communist parties are real destroyers of communist movement and   socialism that has been achieved through hard revolution. We know that   during the middle of the 20th century more than half of the globe and   the people inhabited in it were liberated from capitalism and were   enjoying socialism.</p>
<p>The world was divided into two competing blocks—imperialism and   socialism and there was balance of power. Socialism was rising power   where as imperialism was declining power. Socialism was heading towards   global victory and Marx’s dream of communism looked like to be   fulfilled. But destruction of socialism started right from within.   Restoration of capitalism started from the first socialist country of   the world, Russia in 1956 under the leadership of Khruschev, then leader   of the Communist Party of Soviet Union (CPSU). It spread like wild   fire.</p>
<p>Later Russia degenerated to a social imperialist country. So the real   socialism was destroyed. During ’90s, “anti-socialism” wave backed by   US imperialism washed away the pro-Soviet Union block which they used to   call “socialism”.</p>
<p>It seems that the anti-socialism wind has taken rest in western   countries and socialism is being remembered. The reason is—the   capitalist and imperialist countries provided some basic facilities to   the masses to persuade them in order to prevent socialist revolution to   take place in their country. When socialism has been destroyed   capitalists have no compulsion to compete with socialism. So they are   with-drawing step by step all the basic facilities they were providing   in the name of “social security”. The poor do not get unemployment   allowance, if they get at all, it is quite meager. The poor are unable   to get treatment. So attraction to socialism is increasing, at least the   trend of hate socialism seems to have stopped even in the western   countries where “socialism” was destroyed by big mass actions. We should   take it as a positive trend.</p>
<p><strong>Inter imperialist contradictions still exist</strong></p>
<p>At present there is no WW. But there are still wars going on as   regional war and proxy war. These wars are producing new   anti-imperialist forces and huge number of masses fighting against the   aggressors. Inter imperialist rivalry for the loot of oppressed   countries still exists and will continue to be so till there is   imperialism. Lenin said “imperialism is war” which is always true. There   is good opportunity for the communists to take advantage of these   contradictions.</p>
<p><strong>Growing strength of Maoist forces</strong></p>
<p>After demise of Mao there was serious setback at the ICM. The   initiation of PW in the ’80s in Peru and its subsequent development from   strategic defence to strategic equilibrium created great enthusiasm   among the communist revolutionaries at the global level. But   unfortunately the Peruvian revolution suffered a big set back after the   capture of its supreme leader Gonzalo and hosts of the senior leaders  of  the party during 1992-94.</p>
<p>Before this event could have caused big damage to the ICM, the PW   initiated in Nepal under the leadership of the Communist Party of Nepal   (Maoist) developed in leaps and bonds. Within a span of 10 years the   Nepalese revolution reached to the level of strategic offence which   created tremendous enthusiasm throughout the world. In the last few   years the PW in India is developing at the fast pace.</p></div>
<div>
The central government of India very often states that ‘the Naxal   movement (which is often said about Maoists in India) is major threat to   the Indian state’. According to the information, the Maoist party of   India has established proposed base area in Dandakaranya, whose total   area is almost equal to Nepal. The growing strength of the Indian Maoist   is positive development for the revolution in Nepal.</p>
<p><strong>China-India-US factor</strong></p>
<p>Nepal shares about 1800 km border with southern neighbor India and   about 1000 km that with the northern neighbor China. Nepal lies in   between these two giant states. In the past there was hostile relation   in between China and India associated with Indo- China war in 1962. But   such a hostile situation does not exist now. Similarly, USA and China   had also hostile relation in the past. Apparently we do not see such   hostility in between these two powers of the world. Presently China has   good economic ties and has good trade relation with USA and India. But   USA by virtue of being most powerful imperialist country and sole super   power does not like “socialist” China as a prosperous and powerful   country. Though US is a sole super power till the date, but it is a   declining state. It has not come out of the economic crisis that it   faced during couple of years. It is becoming increasingly difficult for   US to compete with China economically. So far the relation between  China  and India is concerned, it is not so healthy. Even the old border  issue  between the two states has not been resolved amicably,  especially in  Arunanchal Pradesh state. Chinas good relation with  Pakistan is also a  factor causing unfriendly relation between the two  neighbors. In short,  there is under current contention going between  China and US; China and  India.</p>
<p>Under the given circumstances, US likes to control China in different   ways. Tibet and Dalai Lama is one of the factors that US and also India   are using to control China. Apparently, there is good trade relation   between India and China. But still India boards Dalai Lama’s “Government   in Exile” in Dharmasala, a town in Himachal Pradesh state of India.   Dalai Lama is still fighting for “free Tibet” with the support of USA,   India and many imperialist countries. Taking advantage of bordering   state with Tibet and unstable and economically poor country, which has   dependency with India and US, they are trying to use Nepal as a base to   conduct “free Tibet movement”. Using Buddhist religion as a cover they   are concentrating their anti- China forces in Himalayan region and also   in Kathmandu. There is growing risk that Nepal may be used as battle   ground for the “free Tibet movement”.</p></div>
<div>
Present Chinese leadership has more than enough knowledge about the   situation stated above. They know that most of the political parties are   loyal to the foreign powers and these parties in power will be   instrumental in facilitating the anti-China movement from Nepal. They   also have sufficient knowledge that only the Maoist party in power can   curb the “free Tibet movement” from Nepal. This is very significant   factor which can be used as a favourable factor for Nepalese revolution   and New Nepal.</p>
<p><strong>Conclusion</strong></p>
<p>What we have explained above clearly shows that present day   international situation in not clearly favourable for any revolution led   by genuine communist party in the world today.</p></div>
<div>
To get readymade favourable international situation is well and good   and definitely we all will be happy to get it. But to find such a   situation is very difficult. Our responsibility is not fulfilled only by   making such analysis and statement that the international situation is   not favourable so there cannot be a revolution in Nepal and any part  of  the world. Now we can see that this unfavourable international  situation  has become a pretext for the reformist and degenerated  “communist”  parties to justify their degeneration into reformism and  revisionism.  What MLM teaches us that if situation is not favourable we  should not  sit idle, we should be active in changing the situation to  make it  favourable. Another important point is that the force of  revolution can  change the situation from unfavourable to favourable.</p>
<p>In our case when we initiated the great PW in Nepal, the  international  situation for us was unfavourable. It is favourable many  times as  compared to the situation during 1996. The development of the  PW has  created the situation more favourable or less unfavourable. We  can  conclude that present international situation is not very much   favourable for the revolution, but it is not so unfavourable as well. If   the initiative of the Maoist party increases tremendously this   situation will further become less unfavourable and favourable to some   extent.</p>
<p>Therefore for the genuine communist revolutionaries present   international situation is not such a big obstacle and revolutionary   movement can grow and revolution can succeed. Let us hope the Nepalese   revolution may be victorious in near future!</p></div>
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