<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"?><oembed><version><![CDATA[1.0]]></version><provider_name><![CDATA[richard2496]]></provider_name><provider_url><![CDATA[https://richard2496.wordpress.com]]></provider_url><author_name><![CDATA[rkochers]]></author_name><author_url><![CDATA[https://richard2496.wordpress.com/author/rkochers/]]></author_url><title><![CDATA[Grocery Bloodbath??]]></title><type><![CDATA[link]]></type><html><![CDATA[<h1 class="title">Are Grocery Chains About To Join The Retail-Bankruptcy Bloodbath?</h1>
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<div class="submitted_username">by <a title="View user profile." href="http://www.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden">Tyler Durden</a></div>
<div class="submitted_datetime"><span title="Sep 2, 2017 8:05 PM">Sep 2, 2017 8:05 PM</span></p>
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<p>Amazon officially assumed control of Whole Foods Market on Monday and by noon, channel checks at <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-28/grocery-bonds-plunge-amazon-slashes-whole-foods-prices">WFM stores</a> revealed that its new tech overlords had already slashed prices by nearly 50%, sending bonds of its grocery-chain rivals reeling as grocers confronted a new dilemma: either slash prices to the point of unprofitability, <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-25/whole-foods-rivals-are-facing-impossible-choice">or hold the line and risk seeing sales evaporate.</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/08/19/2017.09.01grocerybondsmonday.JPG"><img src="https://i1.wp.com/www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/08/19/2017.09.01grocerybondsmonday_0.JPG" alt="" /></a></p>
<p>And as bonds of even highly rated grocery chains have underperformed this week, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-01/amazon-puts-bond-traders-on-edge-in-once-quiet-corner-of-market">Bloomberg</a> is questioning whether the WFM acquisition has fundamentally changed market dynamics in what was previously an island of stability in a retail sector beset by bankruptcies.</p>
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<p>Even before the WFM acquisition, the industry experienced the first signs of strain as Amazon launched its Amazon Fresh grocery service and Wal-Mart started stocking up on reasonably priced organics – factors that contributed to the massive drop in WFM’s market cap, allowing Amazon to scoop it up for less than $14 billion.</p>
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<div> <strong>Prior to this, the conventional wisdom dictated that grocers were impervious to the onslaught of e-commerce that was decimating industries such as clothing and electronics. Investors reasoned that consumers would probably balk at buying perishable goods like food online.</strong></div>
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<p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/08/19/2017.09.01wfmprices.JPG"><img src="https://i0.wp.com/www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/08/19/2017.09.01wfmprices_0.JPG" alt="" /></a></p>
<p>But Amazon, with its seemingly infinite capacity to slash prices and brook losses, has created new risks for Whole Foods&#8217; rivals.</p>
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<p>Apollo Global thought buying North Carolina-based Fresh Market for the “every day low price” of $1.4 billion would be a turnaround slam dunk after its success with Sprouts Farmers Markets. One year later, the future profitability of that deal is in doubt, and <strong>that uncertainty is being reflected in the price.</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/08/19/2017.09.01fresh.JPG"><strong><img src="https://i2.wp.com/www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/08/19/2017.09.01fresh_0.JPG" alt="" /></strong></a></p>
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<p class="excl">“The bonds that financed Apollo Global Management’s purchase last year of upscale grocer Fresh Market plunged to new lows this week. <strong>The cost of buying contracts to protect against a default in Albertsons Cos.’s debt has jumped. Bonds of Bi-Lo Holdings have lost almost half their value this year.”</strong></p>
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<p class="excl">When Apollo Global bought Greensboro, North Carolina-based Fresh Market for $1.4 billion last year, the grocery world seemed quite different. <strong>The chain, known for its fresh produce, had seen sales slow. To lure customers back to Fresh Market’s roughly 170 stores, the private-equity titan was betting it could rely on its experience with previous &#8211; and profitable &#8211; investments in companies such as organic grocer Sprouts Farmers Markets.</strong></p>
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<p class="excl">But Fresh Market is struggling for some of the same reasons that sent Whole Foods into the arms of Amazon. Mainstream competitors including Kroger Co. and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. have pushed deeper into sales of fresh produce and organic products. <strong>Supermarkets have opened so many stores that many analysts expect a shakeout. Before the Amazon deal, Fresh Market bonds traded as high as 91 cents on the dollar. Now they fetch less than 76 cents.”</strong></p>
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<p>The reason is simple: Amazon, which is insulated not only by its e-commerce hegemony but also by investors who don’t expect the company to turn a profit. One analyst aptly referred to this as the Amazon-Whole Foods &#8220;fear factor.”</p>
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<p class="excl"><strong>“It’s the fear factor of Amazon,” </strong>said Mickey Chadha, an analyst at Moody’s Investors Service.<strong> “No retailer can under-price as long as Amazon can, make no money and get away with it. That’s why people are scared.”</strong></p>
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<p>* * *</p>
<p>News of the Amazon deal obliterated billions of dollars of grocers’ valuations, slicing $2 billion off Kroger’s market cap in one day. The grocer’s stock is down 35% this year. <strong>Yet its bonds have held steady.</strong></p>
<p><strong>Meanwhile, nearly $3 billion in Albertsons bonds due in 2021 have tumbled..</strong></p>
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<p class="excl"><strong>“Kroger’s bonds, which are investment grade, haven’t been hit. But about $3 billion of Albertsons debt coming due in 2021 has felt a chill. The loans have been trading at 97.6 cents on the dollar.</strong> Large, liquid, secured loans of that size typically command par, or 100 cents. A public stock offering for the Cerberus Capital Management-backed grocer was again put on hold after Amazon announced its purchase of Whole Foods.”</p>
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<p><strong>&#8230;causing the cost of insuring them to skyrocket.</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/08/19/2017.09.01albertsons.JPG"><img src="https://i1.wp.com/www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/08/19/2017.09.01albertsons_0.JPG" alt="" /></a></p>
<p>As one might expect, analysts now believe that large chains with relatively low debt burdens will somehow manage to survive.</p>
<p>But smaller chains like Bi-Lo Holdings may soon find that their debt burdens are untenable:</p>
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<p class="excl">“For example, Bi-Lo Holdings has borrowed hundreds of millions to make cash payouts to private-equity owner Lone Star Global Acquisitions. <strong>One of the bonds the company sold to pay the dividends now trades at levels indicating investors expect to recoup only a third of what they loaned the company.”</strong></p>
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<p>Tops Friendly Markets, another troubled grocer, is being choked by its $720 million debt pile.</p>
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<p class="excl">“Tops Friendly Markets, which is reporting millions in losses, is straining under $720 million in debt. Using a maneuver typical of distressed companies, it put off repayments due in 2018 while it grapples with price deflation and traditional rivals in its western New York home turf. <strong>If earnings and the balance sheet don’t improve, investors holding the rest of Tops’ bonds could find they’re stuck with spoiled goods.”</strong></p>
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<p>However, there&#8217;s at least one factor that may insulate the market&#8217;s weaker hands, at least for a little while. There are 40,000 grocery stores in the US, only 400 of which are WFMs&#8230;</p>
<p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/08/19/2017.09.01groceries.JPG"><img src="https://i2.wp.com/www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/08/19/2017.09.01groceries_0.JPG" alt="" /></a></p>
<p>So, should investors be bracing for a wave of grocery bankruptcies resembling this year’s record run of failures among department stores, apparel sellers and electronics retailers? Maybe not right away. <strong>But once Amazon&#8217;s had a few years to expand its footprint, a massive shakeout seems inevitable. </strong></p>
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