The Todd Akin affair could turn out to be a major element in the loss of the 2012 for the Romney/Ryan team should that happen. Such a result would have a significant bearing on the post election cohesiveness of the GOP, and the 2016 election.


The Republican establishment might blame the conservatives/Tea Party element for alienating the Independent voters through the Dem’s tarring the entire party with the Akin brush. They then could press for another centrist candidate in the Dole/McCain/Romney mould for the 2016 election.


This could cause a major split in the Republican ranks. The Tea Party element could feel that the waters had been muddied, as without the Akin gift to the Dem’s Romney would have lost anyway, and it would now be the turn for the conservative element to have their candidate as the nominee next time.


If the establishment succeeded in, once again,  getting one of their own to be the next nominee, there could be, at best, a massive stay at home protest on election day, and at worst, a huge split in the party leading to a third party being created on the right. This, whilst the probably inevitable result of such a scenario, would doom the right to many years out of office until the dust settled.


What worked for the Democrats in 2008 and so far in 2012, the charge of racism, the “war on women” nonsense would surely get another airing. It would probably work in 2016 if the Republicans nominated a white, wealthy, pro-life, male (especially if from the South). The social positions of Akin would be an attack point even if he was a distant memory by then.


Only a Republican standard bearer would have a chance of winning who was a female, conservative, pro-life (with a degree of exception) who believed the avenue for such legislation was with the states, and who took a hands off position on the matter when in a legislative role. A mother, one who had walked the walk as far as being pro-life was concerned, even to the point of having a special needs child. A female from a family which was multi-racial so charges of racism could not be laid, and who was a northerner.


A conservative mother, no matter how much she as an individual might be against abortion following rape and incest, could escape being tied to absolutist positions such as the GOP’s currently proposed abortion plank. This charge is being leveled against Romney/Ryan by the Dem’s currently.


Only one person, Sarah Palin, meets all these criteria which would enable a campaign to be run on the issues, like the economy, without the current dislocations being experienced by the GOP.


The Republican establishment would do well to consider fully letting the rank and file  have their chance in 2016. If such a Conservative loses they will have had their chance, the party will stay united, and the Beltway can run an endless series of centrist candidates until a really bad economy gives them a win. 


If the establishment places a centrist candidate in 2016 if Romney loses in 2012, they risk losing everything for a long run of elections subsequent to a perhaps irredeemable split. Only Palin candidacy could prevent this and give the GOP its best chance to win the presidency.