My June forecast of 5.5 million JAXA is now off by 9%.

My August 5.1 forecast is now off by 1%. Best guess of NSIDC numbers has their August forecast a little ahead of mine. each ring represents 100,000 km² of forecast error.

NCEP has changed their forecast and the winds should continue for at least a few more days. I expect to see continued compaction of the ice and decrease in extent.

The video below shows how southerly winds have persisted over the last few weeks.