<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"?><oembed><version><![CDATA[1.0]]></version><provider_name><![CDATA[Real Science]]></provider_name><provider_url><![CDATA[https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com]]></provider_url><author_name><![CDATA[stevengoddard]]></author_name><author_url><![CDATA[https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/author/stevengoddard/]]></author_url><title><![CDATA[Are We Headed For An Ice Free&nbsp;Arctic?]]></title><type><![CDATA[link]]></type><html><![CDATA[<p>Linear trend maps indicate that since the start of the satellite record, summer ice extent is on the decline.</p>
<p><a href="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/nsidc_september_arctic_ice_extent_trend.png"><img loading="lazy" data-attachment-id="855" data-permalink="https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2010/09/08/are-we-headed-for-an-ice-free-arctic/nsidc_september_arctic_ice_extent_trend/" data-orig-file="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/nsidc_september_arctic_ice_extent_trend.png" data-orig-size="690,320" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;}" data-image-title="nsidc_september_arctic_ice_extent_trend" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/nsidc_september_arctic_ice_extent_trend.png?w=300" data-large-file="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/nsidc_september_arctic_ice_extent_trend.png?w=690" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-855" title="nsidc_september_arctic_ice_extent_trend" src="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/nsidc_september_arctic_ice_extent_trend.png?w=640&#038;h=296" alt="" width="640" height="296" srcset="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/nsidc_september_arctic_ice_extent_trend.png?w=638&amp;h=296 638w, https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/nsidc_september_arctic_ice_extent_trend.png?w=150&amp;h=70 150w, https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/nsidc_september_arctic_ice_extent_trend.png?w=300&amp;h=139 300w, https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/nsidc_september_arctic_ice_extent_trend.png 690w" sizes="(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px" /></a></p>
<p>Does this mean that we are headed for an ice-free Arctic?<br />
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Probably not. First, ice extent is at 75% of the 30 year NSIDC mean. That is a long ways away from zero.</p>
<p><a href="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/paintimage2153.jpg"><img loading="lazy" data-attachment-id="857" data-permalink="https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2010/09/08/are-we-headed-for-an-ice-free-arctic/paintimage2153/" data-orig-file="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/paintimage2153.jpg" data-orig-size="720,486" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;}" data-image-title="PaintImage2153" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/paintimage2153.jpg?w=300" data-large-file="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/paintimage2153.jpg?w=720" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-857" title="PaintImage2153" src="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/paintimage2153.jpg?w=640&#038;h=432" alt="" width="640" height="432" srcset="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/paintimage2153.jpg?w=640&amp;h=432 640w, https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/paintimage2153.jpg?w=150&amp;h=101 150w, https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/paintimage2153.jpg?w=300&amp;h=203 300w, https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/paintimage2153.jpg 720w" sizes="(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px" /></a></p>
<p>But more importantly, what is driving the reduction in extent is wind, which is compacting the ice towards the pole &#8211; where temperatures are colder and the melt season is shorter.</p>
<span class="embed-youtube" style="text-align:center; display: block;"><iframe class='youtube-player' width='640' height='360' src='https://www.youtube.com/embed/mjTRJctrxwo?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;fs=1&#038;autohide=2&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;wmode=transparent' allowfullscreen='true' style='border:0;'></iframe></span>
<p>This weather pattern makes it more difficult to achieve an ice free Arctic. Thicker ice near the pole in mid-September has almost no chance of melting out.</p>
<p>Conclusion : It is a mistake to extrapolate an ice-free Arctic based on recent weather patterns. An ice-free Arctic would require much warmer summers north of 80N, and spreading of the ice. There is no indication either is happening.</p>
<p><a href="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/meant_2010.png"><img loading="lazy" data-attachment-id="858" data-permalink="https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2010/09/08/are-we-headed-for-an-ice-free-arctic/meant_2010/" data-orig-file="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/meant_2010.png" data-orig-size="600,400" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;}" data-image-title="meanT_2010" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/meant_2010.png?w=300" data-large-file="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/meant_2010.png?w=600" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-858" title="meanT_2010" src="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/meant_2010.png?w=600&#038;h=400" alt="" width="600" height="400" srcset="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/meant_2010.png 600w, https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/meant_2010.png?w=150&amp;h=100 150w, https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/meant_2010.png?w=300&amp;h=200 300w" sizes="(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php">http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php</a></p>
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