The image above is an overlay of NSIDC’s end of July ice age map on their most recent extent map.

There has been some loss of second year and multi-year ice (MYI) since July, but for the most part it is intact.. All of the remaining green and blue ice will be multi-year ice next year, except for any ice which blows out into the North Atlantic over the winter.

Compare that with the amount of MYI in March 2008.

Conclusion. If the Arctic Oscillation stays negative again this winter and ice is retained, we will see a large increase in the amount of thick multi-year ice come spring 2011.