<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"?><oembed><version><![CDATA[1.0]]></version><provider_name><![CDATA[Real Science]]></provider_name><provider_url><![CDATA[https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com]]></provider_url><author_name><![CDATA[stevengoddard]]></author_name><author_url><![CDATA[https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/author/stevengoddard/]]></author_url><title><![CDATA[Cook&#8217;s Hokey Stick]]></title><type><![CDATA[link]]></type><html><![CDATA[<p>Update from John Cook :</p>
<p style="padding-left:30px;"><em>Sorry it’s taken me so long to get to this discussion where earlier clarification would’ve been helpful.</em></p>
<p style="padding-left:30px;"><em>Steve is correct that the caption of my Figure 1 is mislabelled – I  should’ve said “NH land temperature”, not “NH temperature”. I’ve  corrected the caption and indicated the update at the bottom of the blog  post. Using instrumental land temperature is the appropriate metric as  Moberg’s proxy is also a measure of NH land temperature. To use the full  NH temperature would be comparing apples to oranges.</em></p>
<p style="padding-left:30px;"><em>Steve is incorrect when he claims “he goes on and does climate  sensitivity calculations based on bogus data from a cherry-picked  hemisphere”. I don’t do any climate sensitivity calculations in this  post. I’ve cited Hegerl 2000 which uses proxy data (not instrumental  data) over the last 750 years to calculate a best guess climate  sensitivity of around 3 degrees C. I’ve also compared this to the IPCC  climate sensitivity range of 2°C to 4.5°C which is based on the full  body of evidence (eg – proxy data over the last millennium, global  instrumental data going back to 1850, global climate responses to  volcanic eruptions, global satellite measurements of outgoing radiation,  etc).</em></p>
<p><em>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><a href="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/capture17.png"><img loading="lazy" data-attachment-id="4958" data-permalink="https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2010/10/20/cooks-hokey-stick/capture-187/" data-orig-file="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/capture17.png" data-orig-size="606,441" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;}" data-image-title="Capture" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/capture17.png?w=300" data-large-file="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/capture17.png?w=606" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-4958" title="Capture" src="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/capture17.png?w=606&#038;h=441" alt="" width="606" height="441" srcset="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/capture17.png 606w, https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/capture17.png?w=150&amp;h=109 150w, https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/capture17.png?w=300&amp;h=218 300w" sizes="(max-width: 606px) 100vw, 606px" /></a></p>
<p>John Cook has <a href="http://www.skepticalscience.com/news.php?n=420">taken the hockey stick</a> to a new level of BS with the graph above. It shows northern hemisphere temperatures rising more than 1ºC since the mid-1970s, supposedly based on HadCrut.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/nhshgl.gif">actual HadCrut northern hemisphere graph</a> shows a much smaller rise of about 0.7ºC since the mid-1970s, and little warming over the last decade.</p>
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<p><a href="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/capture18.png"><img loading="lazy" data-attachment-id="4959" data-permalink="https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2010/10/20/cooks-hokey-stick/capture-188/" data-orig-file="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/capture18.png" data-orig-size="596,263" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;}" data-image-title="Capture" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/capture18.png?w=300" data-large-file="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/capture18.png?w=596" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-4959" title="Capture" src="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/capture18.png?w=596&#038;h=263" alt="" width="596" height="263" srcset="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/capture18.png 596w, https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/capture18.png?w=150&amp;h=66 150w, https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/capture18.png?w=300&amp;h=132 300w" sizes="(max-width: 596px) 100vw, 596px" /></a></p>
<p>Superimposed on top of eachother at the same scale, you can see just how whacked Cook&#8217;s graph is.</p>
<p><a href="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/animationimage3219.jpg"><img loading="lazy" data-attachment-id="4960" data-permalink="https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2010/10/20/cooks-hokey-stick/animationimage3219/" data-orig-file="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/animationimage3219.jpg" data-orig-size="720,486" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;}" data-image-title="AnimationImage3219" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/animationimage3219.jpg?w=300" data-large-file="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/animationimage3219.jpg?w=720" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-4960" title="AnimationImage3219" src="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/animationimage3219.jpg?w=640&#038;h=432" alt="" width="640" height="432" srcset="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/animationimage3219.jpg?w=640&amp;h=432 640w, https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/animationimage3219.jpg?w=150&amp;h=101 150w, https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/animationimage3219.jpg?w=300&amp;h=203 300w, https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/animationimage3219.jpg 720w" sizes="(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px" /></a></p>
<p>Then he goes on and does climate sensitivity calculations based on bogus data from a cherry-picked hemisphere.</p>
<p>The global HadCrut graph shows a steady trend of about 0.6ºC /century. The period from 1910-1940 had a similar temperature rise to the period of 1970-2000, even though CO2 was much lower and increasing much more slowly than the later period.</p>
<p><a href="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/hadcrut3vgl3.png"><img loading="lazy" data-attachment-id="4961" data-permalink="https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2010/10/20/cooks-hokey-stick/hadcrut3vgl-4/" data-orig-file="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/hadcrut3vgl3.png" data-orig-size="640,480" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;}" data-image-title="hadcrut3vgl" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/hadcrut3vgl3.png?w=300" data-large-file="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/hadcrut3vgl3.png?w=640" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-4961" title="hadcrut3vgl" src="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/hadcrut3vgl3.png?w=640&#038;h=480" alt="" width="640" height="480" srcset="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/hadcrut3vgl3.png 640w, https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/hadcrut3vgl3.png?w=150&amp;h=113 150w, https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/hadcrut3vgl3.png?w=300&amp;h=225 300w" sizes="(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px" /></a></p>
<p>Even GISS shows no meaningful correlation between the annual rate of change of CO2 and the annual rate of change of temperature.</p>
<p><img loading="lazy" data-attachment-id="4678" data-permalink="https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2010/10/17/co2-is-a-pretty-lame-thermostat/dt_dco2/" data-orig-file="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/dt_dco2.jpg" data-orig-size="636,384" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;Tony&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;1287251148&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;}" data-image-title="dT_dCO2" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/dt_dco2.jpg?w=300" data-large-file="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/dt_dco2.jpg?w=636" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-4678" title="dT_dCO2" src="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/dt_dco2.jpg?w=636&#038;h=384" alt="" width="636" height="384" srcset="https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/dt_dco2.jpg 636w, https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/dt_dco2.jpg?w=150&amp;h=91 150w, https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/dt_dco2.jpg?w=300&amp;h=181 300w" sizes="(max-width: 636px) 100vw, 636px" /></p>
<p>Yes John, your &#8220;science&#8221; makes me skeptical.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;</p>
<p>Update : Reader &#8220;robert&#8221; tells me that Cook is using land-only northern hemisphere data in his &#8220;northern hemisphere&#8221; graph. In other words, more than half of the northern hemisphere is excluded from his northern hemisphere data.</p>
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